I engaged in a thought experiment regarding the possible outcomes of the 2012 elections and I have determined that conservatives (and America as a whole) will benefit from 75% of the possible scenarios.
While going through this thought experiment I considered all the permutations with regard to the House of Representatives, Senate and White House and gave each two possible outcomes – Republican or Democratic control. For the sake of this post I’m going to assume that the House of Representatives will stay firmly in control of Republicans and I don’t think that is debatable except for those who choose to live in an alternate reality like Debbie Wasserman-Schultz. That leaves four possible outcomes of the 2012 elections and I’ll go over each below.
Republicans take control of the White House and Senate
So let’s assume that Romney (who is probably the Republican nominee) can sway enough independents and moderates so that he beats Obama and Republicans are able to pick up enough Senate seats to replace Harry Reid with Mitch McConnell.
In this scenario Romney would be able to replace the heads of HHS, EPA, DoJ, FDA and other agencies that are killing America with over regulation and the Senate could then drive Romney to the Right by sending him legislation (Cut, Cap and Balance, Repeal Obamacare and a budget similar to Paul Ryan’s) that will return America to a more fiscally conservative position. Romney would receive an incredible amount of backlash from the Right if he refused to sign this legislation and even if you ascribe to the harshest characterization of Romney (he is a shape shifter who changes to fit the majority) then you’ll agree that he’ll morph into a conservative to satisfy the Republican majority in the Legislative branch of government.
There is another long term benefit of this scenario. As the economy improves through fiscal and economic conservative principles, Americans who have been brain washed by the Main Stream Media and other Leftists will once again see the value of conservative principles with regard to the economy and budget/spending and will start to vote for more conservatives in future elections. Most Americans are not political pundits and vote with their bank accounts and as the economy is humming and they see the difference between the Obama years and the Romney years, conservatives will gain new converts.
Republicans take control of the White House and Democrats retain control of Senate
In this scenario Harry Reid would never bring legislation up for a vote that conservatives in the House propose (which has been the case for the past 2 years) but there is still hope. Even if SCOTUS doesn’t deem Obamacare unconstitutional, Romney could still stifle and delay the implementation of this albatross by putting the brakes on the regulation writing in the HHS.
Regulations can be rolled back with new appointments to the various agencies and political pressure could be placed on Reid with both the House and the Executive branch against him. It wouldn’t be ideal but the bleeding could be stopped and Republicans could also spin the “Do Nothing Senate” narrative that could lead to a Senate flip in the mid-term elections.
Obama is re-elected and Republicans take control of the Senate
With Obama in the White House for four more years and if SCOTUS doesn’t deem the individual mandate of Obamacare unconstitutional then the repeal of it is basically impossible. But this scenario could also be beneficial to Republicans if they choose to play hard ball.
Imagine if the Republican Congress repeatedly sent bills to the desk of the President only to have them gather cobwebs. Congress could shut down the government and force Obama’s hand and then talk about the “Do Nothing President” and talk how he is resisting the will of America (who elected Republican majorities in both the House and Senate). The ire of the American people would then be redirected from Congress to the President and possibly force his hand.
But there is another subtle aspect of this scenario that could lead to long term gains for conservatives. A Romney defeat in the wake of 3+ years of the most Liberal President in history could spell the end of the “Washington establishment” that produced such a poor field of Republican candidates. People will start to wake up to the fact that we need to have fiscally and economically proven conservatives in the primary and Republicans should not only rally around them but defend them when the MSM and other Leftists seek to smear them.
I subscribe to the theory that, because of the Leftist brain washing of Americans, it is difficult to elect a strong conservative to the Executive office and that is one of the reasons I have supported Romney in this election. But if Romney loses, then I’ll concede that this theory is wrong and will fight harder than ever to make sure I don’t make this same mistake in 2016.
Obama is re-elected and Democrats retain control of the Senate
This is the only scenario that I can’t see turning out well for not only conservatives but for America. This perfect storm would not only mean a reprise of the last 3+ years but could also signal more socialistic tendencies of Obama since he won’t have to worry about campaigning for re-election.
The worst case scenario is that America is fast tracked on a course that several countries in Europe are on with sky rocketing debt, mushrooming entitlement programs that can’t be funded and riots in the streets. Americans live in a country where over 90% of tax revenues go to fund Social Security, Welfare, Unemployment Insurance, Medicare and Medicaid and we have to borrow the rest to take care of what the government was originally intended to do (building infrastructure, provide for common defense, etc.). Why is a majority of Americans not outraged by this? It’s because the Leftist brainwashing has worked and we now have generations of Americans who are comfortable with European style socialism even though those countries are breaking under the weight of their debt.
This scenario could also rejuvenate the conservative base to demand more from the Republican Party to field more conservative candidates but I fear that 4 more years of Harry Reid and Barack Obama steering our country will be hard to overcome. We see with Greece that even though the country is failing because of their unsustainable entitlement programs, the Greeks resist austerity and riot in the streets (giving up those handouts is hard to do). This same scene will be coming to an American city near you if this dreadful election scenario plays out.
Americans must fight for any of the first three scenarios if we have any hopes of turning this country around. If you are a conservative and so unsatisfied with Mitt Romney that you’ll sit the election out then that is your right but you need to fight like hell to make sure Republicans win back the Senate.