So much for the pundits who said debate performance doesn’t matter – From Real Clear Politics:
From two of the latest four polls that I could access without subscriptions, the IBD/TIPP poll had a D/I/R sampling of 39%/30%/31% (D+8) and the Pew Research poll had a D/I/R sampling of 34%/31%/35% (R+1). This means that Romney is beating Obama in polls that are weighted in favor of a higher Democrat to Republican ratio than is expected in November based on this poll.
This is a devastating result for Team Obama and this shows what a turnaround Romney had with Independent voters after the debate. From the Pew poll, Independent likely voter support for Obama went from 45% prior to the debate to 42% after the debate and their support for Romney went from 44% to 46% and in a race this close, this move is huge.
Another interesting data point from the Pew poll came from a question to likely voters – “In politics TODAY, do you consider yourself Republican, Democrat or Independent?” Prior to the debate respondents said they considered themselves Democrat over Republican by 39% to 29% but after the debate that changed to 36% Republican and 31% Democrat (respondents said Independent 30% of the time both pre and post debate).
And when registered voters were asked the same question, there were similar results.
Of course Conservatives have been diving deeper into the polls for weeks warning people to not accept the headlines without looking at the polling sample to determine party identification but Leftists in the media were strangely silent about the large +D sampling in polls over the last few weeks. But now that the polls are showing Romney ahead, the MSM types like Chuck Todd were quick to tweet about political ID.
I guess I missed Chuck’s tweets about this poll that had Obama up 50% to 45% with a D+7 sampling.
Romney is starting to surge now that Americans are allowed to see the stark contrast between Romney and Obama now that the MSM filters have been removed during head-to-head debates.
Way to go, Cosmo. And nicely pointed out that the Media only has a problem with facts when they go against their BFF.
Another week or two of this, and we may get to see real tears on the network news.
Rest up for the debate tonight, Cosmo; get your fingers all limbered up.
Gonna be a looong night.
Can’t wait to read your posts tomorrow! I am not as prolific as you are on your blog but I’m ready for the next 4 weeks to step up the postings!
I’m writing it now.
Biden’s constant interruptions and overall rudeness had me pulling the last few strands of hair I had left out of my skull.
Haven’t wanted to punch someone I would normally refer to as “sir” in a very long time.
See you tomorrow, Cosmo!
It’s still going to come down to Ohio. Obama has such a large structural electoral advantage that Romney needs to win almost all the swing states to get to 270. Both Romney and Obama have bought every available media spot left to buy in Ohio so because of equal time provisions, there will be no media advantage in the last 4 weeks leading to election for either candidate.
The real issue will be getting out the vote and Romney should be flooding the state with workers to do that. Romney has to win Ohio. The polls don’t matter unless Ryan and Romney continue their roll in the debates and end up winning states like Pennsylvania and New Jersey that were considered safe for Obama. If that doesn’t happen, it’s going to come down to Ohio.
As usual, you are right on target here Blaine. Let’s hope Romney has another home run on Tuesday and then the third debate will basically be meaningless and just a victory lap for Romney.
These numbers are unchanged from the morning of the second presidential debate. They suggest that the president’s stronger performance in that debate stopped his slide in the polls but did not regain lost ground. The first debate had a bigger impact, changing the race from a two-point Obama advantage to a two-point Romney edge. Still, the race remains too close to call with just over two weeks to go.