This Is Why We Lose Elections

These People vote.

https://twitter.com/jimgzmail/status/307679566149844992

https://twitter.com/TheYoungLibs/status/307344266726866945

https://twitter.com/odanu/status/307695021052788737
https://twitter.com/tlpwife/status/307694536715558912
https://twitter.com/martimr1/status/307694203541004288
https://twitter.com/CletisStump/status/307689930799329280

https://twitter.com/Norberto7549/status/307673665204547584

https://twitter.com/Stwallace23/status/307669993657602048
https://twitter.com/mikeallenlong/status/307669902657978368

Posted in politics | 1 Comment

Obama Administration Threatens Journalist

Bob Woodward (of Woodward and Bernstein fame who broke Watergate) was threatened by a Senior Obama White House Official, Director of White House Economic Council Gene Sperling, over a story Woodward plans to run tagging Obama as the originator of the Sequester Cuts.

Buzzfeed was quick to come to the White House’s defense:

“Officials often threaten reporters that they will “regret” printing something that is untrue, but Woodward took the remark as a threat.”

Apparently they are right!  Remember last year when Obama’s Interior Secretary Ken Salazar threatened to punch a reporter?

“After being questioned about a major wild horse buyer who is under federal investigation and with whom he has business ties, U.S. Secretary of the Department of Interior Ken Salazar threatened to punch a reporter allegedly.

KKCO aired a clip of the exchange between Salazar and reporter Dave Philipps of The Colorado Springs Gazette at an election-day rally in Fountain, Colo.

You know what. You can never do that. This is the Obama … You know what. You do that to me again. I’m gonna punch you out.”

Or maybe it’s just the Obama administration that threatens reporters.  I don’t remember any stories of the Bush 41, Clinton or GW Bush White Houses threatening reporters …..but I digress.

The State Run Media (SRM) appears to be taking several tactics to diffuse this Woodward situation – 1) say it happens all the time, 2) ignore/deny it or 3) discredit Woodward.

It’s predictable that Media Matters for America Eric Boehlert did all three on Twitter:

Woodward is no rookie reporter and he’s definitely no Right Wing blogger so there is no reason for him to make up this accusation.  A man who was on the front lines of Watergate will not be intimidated nor will he neglect his journalistic integrity (and there are few out there who can match Woodward’s).  If Woodward says he was threatened then the man’s reputation precedes him and we must take it at face value until further evidence contradicts his story.

I asked BuzzFeedAndrew if he was really serious that this sort of intimidation happens all the time.

There are two things that disturb me about the ‘it happens all the time’ defense.

First, I think that is a lie because if the Bush WH had said the same thing to reporters then the SRM would’ve pounced on Bush and rapidly come to the defense of the reporter.  Can you imagine the reaction if a senior official from the George W. Bush White House would’ve said this same comment to Woodward 10 years ago?  SRM would’ve pounced and it would be the lead story for weeks!

Second, if reporters are routinely intimidated by White House officials then this needs to be reported more often and stopped.  Are there ‘journalists’ out there who have had similar treatment and remained silent?  How do they live with themselves?  There used to be a time when journalists would wish for an elected official’s administration to threaten them.  They could break a story wide open and maybe even win awards.

If we have come to the point where the White House intimidates reporters from writing stories detrimental to the President then we are no better than Cold War Soviet Union.  Without an independent 4th Estate doing their jobs then we are vulnerable to an Executive branch that can violate the Constitution and take away our Freedoms.

This is very troubling and let’s watch how other ‘journalists’ react to this obvious attempt of intimidation of Woodward.

Posted in politics | 2 Comments

Big Gamble for Obama (and America)

It appears these Sequester cuts are going to happen so I’ve started thinking ahead, 3-6 months down the road, and asking myself how Obama will react once the monthly Unemployment data and Q1/Q2 GDP numbers are reported.  The more I think about it, the more I realize that this Sequester Cut legislation may be seen as the turning point for America (and that could be either a turn for the worse or a turn for the better).

It is my belief that the effects of the $85 billion Sequester cuts will not be measurable in a $16 trillion economy.  Those cuts amount to 0.5% of the US GDP which is within the margin of error so unless I’m way off on the multiplier for the Government portion of our economy, the Sequester cuts will be a non-factor with regard to short term economic data.

But that won’t stop the Left and Right from placing a huge correlation (or non correlation) between the Sequester cuts and these future economic reports.  This Sequester Cut/Tax Increase issue is so polarizing, Dem and GOP Party members will not be able to restrain themselves after fresh Economic data is released.  After each new Economic report, we’ll then see a Politician grab a microphone to proclaim how their position on the Sequester is being validated in that report.

Our political parties have drawn a Maginot line over the Sequester cuts so like it or not, every new economic report for the next 3-6 months will need to have a Sequester tie-in.

Over the coming months, one of the following scenarios will happen:

Scenario #1 – Unemployment and Q1/Q2 GDP data show the economy as ‘flat’ or growing

This is the worst case for Obama but the best case for the American people.  Obama will now have to admit that the Sequester cuts were really not that big of a deal and he was just fear mongering about the damage these minimal cuts would inflict.  The American people will realize that Obama was using Alinsky Rule #9 (“The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself”) and now that they finally stood up to the bully, they will not hesitate to do it again.

With Obama’s primary weapon (fear) nullified, Independents will give more credence to what the GOP is saying versus what Obama and Team Fearmonger are saying.  In 2014, Republicans can solidify their control of the House and even some of the spineless GOP members might muster some courage to stand up to the Dems.  Maybe the house will propose MORE spending cuts since the 2012 Sequester cuts worked so well for the US Economy!

Best case?  This could really be the turning point for the GOP as more Americans open up to Fiscal and Economic Conservative principles.

Scenario #2 – Unemployment and Q1/Q2 GDP data shows a contraction of the economy and maybe even a double dip recession

This is the worst case for the American people but the best case for Obama.  Now Obama can point to the House GOP as the ones who ‘forced’ the Sequester to happen (even though we know whose fault it is) and caused hard working Americans to lose their jobs and plunge America into yet another economic crisis.  You can hear the State Run Media (SRM) being all too anxious to parrot this propaganda (Chuck Todd won’t be able to contain himself).   The SRM will forget that economy was already showing signs of weakness before the Sequester cuts kicked in nor will they mention that the economy could also be weighed down with Obamacare looming on the horizon.  Nope, the SRM will be consistent in their blame for the economic crisis – Republicans allowing the Sequester cuts to hit because they wanted to protect the wealthy 1% from another income tax hike.

Obama will blame-storm the GOP right up until the 2014 elections, the House will fall back into Democratic hands and that will be GAME OVER.  Do not pass go.  Do not collect $200.  You sank my battleship.  Checkmate.

Obama will have carte blanche to raise taxes, increase spending for entitlement programs, pass Cap-And –Trade and pass other freedom robbing legislation like stricter gun control laws.  There will be nobody to stop Obama for the final two years of his Presidency and that will just about seal the deal by placing American on a firm path to Greece/Destruction.

The Economic reports over the coming months will be like a high stakes game of chance and even if they aren’t aware, America is “All-In!”  I guess it’s sort of fitting that in this politically polarized time, our future as a nation will be determined by a piece of Legislation that has little to no effect on the real economic outcome of our country.

Time to roll the dice!

Posted in economics, politics | 2 Comments

We Must Push Through The Obamaquester Demagogue Plan

I have a good idea how events will play out over the coming weeks after the Obamaquester spending cuts kick in.  The blamestorming from Team Obama and the State Run Media will be fierce for a few weeks but once their dire projections fail to materialize, there will be better times once we push through it.

But before I get to that, let’s review two key facts:

So, even though the Sequester cuts were Obama’s idea and the cuts are a mere 2.4% of our estimated spending in 2013, Obama is telling the American people that these cuts will be devastating.  Even NPR is supporting the Obama message by generating this scary headline.

npr headline

As was pointed out in a comment from one of my recent blog posts, the American people were forced to cut their paychecks by 2% when the payroll tax holiday expired in January so we should expect our Federal Government to (at least) match those cuts in their own spending.

The Mercatus Center at George Mason University put together this chart showing the Federal Government spending with and without the Obamaquester cuts and you can see these ‘deep’ cuts are nothing of the kind.

george mason

Notice that spending is STILL INCREASING but that won’t stop Team Obama from demagoguing those who oppose these minimal cuts.

Now Here’s What Will Happen

In the week after the Obamaquester cuts kick in you can expect to see each of Obama’s cabinet Secretaries calling separate press conferences where they’ll tell how these ‘devastating’ cuts are hurting America.

Secretary of State John Kerry will tell us how massive cuts in his department will hamper National Security.

Secretary of the Treasury Neil Wolin will tell us how cuts to his department will curtail efforts to prevent money flowing to terrorist organizations.

Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta will tell us how cuts to his department will force civilian contractors to have reduced work weeks and will hurt our national security and hurt the economy.

Attorney General Eric Holder will tell us how cuts to his department will force prosecutors to let criminals go free.

Secretary of the Interior Kenneth Salazar will tell us how cuts to his department will limit oil/gas permitting and will drive up energy prices.

Secretary of Agriculture Thomas Vilsack will tell us how cuts to his department will shut down meat plants.

Secretary of Commerce Rebecca Blank will tell us how cuts to her department will limit patent approvals which will hurt startups and the economy.

Acting Secretary of Labor Seth Harris will tell us how Obamaquester will be the reason for the increased Unemployment rate we’ll see in March.

Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius will tell us how cuts to her department will result in people being turned away from hospitals and implementation of Obamacare will be delayed.

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun L. S. Donovan will tell us how cuts to his department will result in hundreds of thousands more homeless.

Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood will tell us how cuts to his department will result in flight cancellations and vital road projects put on hold.

Secretary of Energy Steven Chu will tell us how cuts to his department will result in rendering our energy grid less secure and scuttle many green energy projects.

Secretary of Education Arne Duncan will tell us how cuts to his department will result in kids being booted from Head Start programs and massive teacher layoffs.

Secretary of Veterans Affairs Eric Shinseki will tell us how cuts to his department will result in closing VA hospitals and longer waits for wounded veterans coming home from Afghanistan.

Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano will tell us how cuts to her department will result in limited border security, decreased security in airports and limit their fight against terrorism.

Fast Forward To The End Of March

After weeks of the Obama cabinet spewing their fear mongering and the State Run Media parroting the memes, Americans will slowly realize that all the gloom and doom never materialized.  The economy was not affected.  Our national security was not compromised.  Cutting Federal Government spending was actually a good thing.  Maybe we should do more to limit our Federal Government spending.

After the Obamaquester cuts hit, the blowback will be sever but have faith.  We need to lean into the Team Obama scare tactics for a few weeks and good things will come out of it.  The primary weapon of Obama – Government spending cuts will hurt America – will be utterly destroyed and he’ll never be able to use it again.  We must push through this Obamaquester spending cuts to reach a turning point in the US.

Posted in politics | 6 Comments

Stand Up to the Obamaquester Bully

Saul Alinsky Rules For Radicals – Rule #9 – “The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself.”

Anyone who has stood up to a bully, dove off a cliff, started a new career or faced other fears knows this rule is mostly true.  We can get so worked up over the anxiety of facing a fear that we are paralyzed and sometimes never muster the courage to face those very fears that are holding us back.

My son went through this process during his first year in football.  He is a fairly aggressive kid and loves sports but God didn’t bless him with the frame of a football player.  While my son has loved football since as long as he could talk, he was one of the smallest kids on the team and I expected him to be disappointed once he realized this game was for much bigger people.  I noticed early on that due to his inexperience and after he was a little intimidated by the older, bigger kids, he held back during the first few practices.  For the first time in my son’s short life, I saw anxiousness and a little bit of fear.

Then the first practice came with full pads and this was when full contact was allowed.  He had several drills where he lined up with bigger kids and they’d run into each other and there was more than one occasion where my 8 year old son took a big blow and I wondered how he’d react.

After that first full pads practice was over, he came to the sidelines to gather his stuff and I asked him how the practice went.  His response?  “Dad, that is exactly why I wanted to play football, it was great!”

My son just discovered that the fear of getting hit was much more terrifying than actually getting hit.  He went on to have a great time with his first season of football and sure enough he got smacked around pretty good but he escaped with no injuries and best of all, he came away with confidence knowing that he can face other fears that will come his way.  It feels good to conquer a fear or stand up to a bully.

And now the American people are facing a bully and his name is Obamaquester.  If you don’t know him, go here to find out about him and go here to see who created him.  Keep in mind this isn’t the first time this monster has bullied us around.  In the recent past he has gone by other names – TARP, Fiscal Cliff, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, Cash for Clunkers, Shovel Ready Jobs, Budget Control Act of 2011, Raising the Debt Limit and Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).  Just to name a few…..

Over the course of the past 4+ years a new crisis comes up every few months and we’re told by Obama that if we didn’t act (and SOON!) then our whole society would come crumbling down.  It was during the Fiscal Cliff negotiations late last year that I finally realized that Team Obama prefers this “crisis around every corner” environment and they really don’t have any desire to address our country’s most pressing long term fiscal problems.

The election is over.  Obama is in his 2nd term as POTUS and can’t be re-elected so why is he still in campaign mode and not actively working with Congress to address our out of control entitlement spending that will destroy our country?  You can dismiss this crisis-every-few-months mode of operation if you realize that is the guy’s campaign strategy.  Obama won in November so stop it!

But Obama doesn’t stop it.  Why he continues to act in this manner is anybody’s guess – He’s ignorant, He’s being controlled by those who wish to destroy the country, He really hates America, He is so delusional that he thinks Keynesian Economics actually works, etc. – I don’t care the reason behind it.  The fact remains that he is destroying America as he continues to demagogue the Republicans and scare the American people into following his disastrous course.

Enough!

It’s time for the Republicans in the House to stand up to the bully and let the Obamaquester cuts kick in.  Obama proposed these cuts, mandated they be included in the BCA of 2011 and both sides in the House and Senate voted for them.  Let it burn.

And here’s the best part about letting the Obamaquester cuts kick in. 

Something wonderful will happen months after these supposedly disastrous cuts take place – Americans will wake up and realize everything is OK.  The economy didn’t collapse over $85 billion spending cuts from a Federal ‘budget’ that is expected to spend $3.8 trillion in 2013.  Independent voters across the land will realize that reducing the size of the Federal Government isn’t nearly as terrifying as Obama and the other Democrats made it out to be.  People who only get their news from the Leftist, State supported news organizations will realize people like Chuck Todd, Brian Williams and Chris Matthews are really just shills for the Obama administration.  Maybe those talking heads aren’t really telling us the unbiased news after all.

The epiphany that most US citizens will have post-Obamaquester is exactly what terrifies Obama and the Democrats.  The American people will call the Left’s bluff, take a hit and realize there is nothing to be feared from a smaller government.  The main weapon of fear for Team Obama will be nullified and the American people will realize the threats coming from Obama were really much less than advertised.

Stand up to the bully and let the Obamaquester happen.  I don’t call Obamaquester a crisis – I call it a good first step.

Posted in politics | 8 Comments

Leftists Deny Obamaquester

It’s a fact that the Sequester spending cuts were not only the product of Team Obama but they were made law because of Obama’s insistence.  Remember what Obama told House Republicans in November 21, 2011 (emphasis mine):

“Already, some in Congress are trying to undo these automatic spending cuts. My message to them is simple:  No.  I will veto any effort to get rid of those automatic spending cuts to domestic and defense spending.  There will be no easy off ramps on this one.”

That means Obama forced House Republicans to include the Sequester cuts in the budget deal of 2011 because those were exactly the kinds of cuts he wanted.

But now that we are days away from these Sequester cuts kicking in Obama has reversed his stance and says these cuts are now bad and he’s blaming the House for them.

“So these cuts are not smart.  They are not fair.  They will hurt our economy.  They will add hundreds of thousands of Americans to the unemployment rolls.  This is not an abstraction — people will lose their jobs.”

Again, here is the video (money quotes come after 1:10 mark):

I saw this tweet from @RBPundit and his simple yes or no question made a lot of sense.

Surely Obama supporters won’t deny an obvious fact that it was indeed Obama who pushed for these across the board cuts and wanted the Sequester included in any deal.  I put that theory to the test with two Leftists who engaged me on twitter.

My first encounter was with @dirkz1:

https://twitter.com/DirkZ1/status/304361474766295041

But that is exactly what the Sequester cuts are – across the board cuts with half of them hitting the Department of Defense.  So why is Obama upset?

I gave @Dirkz1 an opportunity to answer the simple yes or no question.

I’m still waiting on that response.

Here is another exchange with @gemimms:

He answered the yes or no question (he said no) but I don’t think he watched the video all the way through so I gave him another chance to watch the video and on two occasions he denied an easily proven fact.

https://twitter.com/gemimms/status/304418330310230016

https://twitter.com/gemimms/status/304422385728225281

It appears that this simple yes or no question is like Kryptonite to Leftists!

Posted in politics | 7 Comments

Is The Left Coming Unhinged?

obama-biden-facepalm-620x415

The Sequester Backfiring

We are now days away from the Sequester kicking in and Obama is having a hard time convincing House Republicans that we need more tax revenue as part of a deal to avert the Sequester cuts.  Remember that Republicans already caved on tax increases in January with the Senate Fiscal Cliff deal and this was supposed to take tax increases off the table but Obama is calling for more.

“To prevent the spending cuts, worth about $85 billion in between March 1 and Dec. 31, Obama called for tax increases and some spending cuts.”

Obama is now faced with spending cuts but his handlers won’t allow him to do that so what is his strategy?  Blame the Sequester cuts on the Republicans!

There’s just one problem with that tactic, Sequester cuts were Obama’s idea.  Even his Press Secretary Jay Carney admitted that!  Plus, the Sequester was approved by both Houses of Congress and signed by The One so I say let it happen.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, It’s Cliffs All The Way Down!  We keep bouncing from one manufactured crisis to another so let’s take our medicine, let the Obamaquester spending cuts happen and Let It Burn.

Supporting and Promoting Rape

I didn’t think anyone could be more senseless and disrespectful than ex-Indiana men’s basketball coach Bob Knight when he said in 1988:

”I think that if rape is inevitable, relax and enjoy it.”

Then Bob Beckel (Democratic member of Fox News’ The Five) came along and told a lie about rapes on college campuses:

“When was the last time you heard about a rape on campus?”

That was bad enough but then he doubled down and said this:

“Well, date rape, yeah, that’s one thing.”

So when a woman is raped by her date then it’s not that big of a deal, right?  I think the women who are raped on college campuses by their dates and most decent human beings take a far different view.

And don’t forget why The Five was even discussing this rape topic.  Colorado state congressman Joe Salazar (D) recently made the idiotic comment that women should uses whistles to defend themselves against rapists instead of guns.

“It’s why we have call boxes, it’s why we have safe zones, it’s why we have the whistles. Because you just don’t know who you’re gonna be shooting at. And you don’t know if you feel like you’re gonna be raped, or if you feel like someone’s been following you around or if you feel like you’re in trouble when you may actually not be, that you pop out that gun and you pop … pop around at somebody.”

In my opinion, the statements by Beckel and Salazar are worse than the one moron Todd Akin (R) made last year.  Remember when Liberals blasted him (as did I) about the term ‘legitimate rape’?  Where is the Leftist media outrage at Beckel’s denial of college campus rape, Beckel’s dismissal of date rape or Salazar’s suggestion that women limit their defense options against rape?

Crickets.

Gun Memes Blowing up

Leftists are pimping for tougher gun laws and banning ‘assault’ rifles as well as high capacity clips since the Newtown shooting (As Rahm Emanuel said – You never want a serious crisis to go to waste).  They think these new laws will prevent gun homicides.

But real events are not cooperating with their meme.  Recently, in California, a mad man went on a carjacking spree and killed several innocent people with a shotgun.  Notice that the murderer used a shotgun, which would not be banned under existing Leftist proposals, and he carried out this killing spree in a state that has the toughest gun laws in the US as rated by the Brady Campaign To Prevent Gun Violence.

I love it when the Left gets cocky and overplays their hand.  The last time they did this they nominated John Kerry against George W. Bush in 2004 and we know how that turned out.  Even with the Main Stream Media on their side, once average Americans see the true Leftist ideals, they turn away in mass.

It’s starting to happen.  Popcorn!

Posted in politics | 7 Comments

Promises of Obamacare Fall Short

bo signature

Once Obamacare kicks in fully in 2014, we’ll be seeing stories like this every week:

“Tens of thousands of Americans who cannot get health insurance because of preexisting medical problems will be blocked from a program designed to help them because funding is running low.”

“Obama administration officials said Friday that the state-based “high-risk pools” set up under the 2010 health-care law will be closed to new applicants as soon as Saturday and no later than March 2, depending on the state.”

“The program, which was launched in summer 2010, was always intended as a temporary bridge for the uninsured. But it was supposed to last until 2014.”

Now wait a minute!

Are you telling me that when you offer people ‘free’ healthcare they actually sign up for it?

Are you telling me that a ‘free’ healthcare system runs out of money when people actually start using it?

Are you telling me that some people will be turned away from a ‘free’ healthcare system?

Yeah…..Yes…..Hell Yes and oh by the way, Obama lied.

Wow, how could we have seen this coming?  Answer – here, here, here, and here.

And if you think a small $5 billion ‘bridge’ program running out of money is bad, just wait until the $1.76 trillion behemoth crashes.  God help us.

Posted in healthcare, politics | 8 Comments

Advice For The GOP

It’s obvious that after the 2012 elections the GOP is looking to fix what is broken and it appears they are saying the right things and recognizing there is a problem.  Since I consider myself a Conservative, the GOP is the party I would rather see in power and I hope they can get this ship turned in the right direction so we can then get the country turned in the “right” direction (pun intended).

While the GOP is going through this process, I hope they take the time to listen to Conservative youths and I found a recent NPR article that should be required reading for any GOP leader.  In this article, 14 members of The Ohio State University College Republicans watched the SOTU and gave their feedback to an NPR reporter.  Here are just a few of their comments/suggestions.

Younger Leaders

“There was also a strong sense in the room that the Republican Party can revive itself by attracting new, youthful leadership. They say that’s what Democrats did with Barack Obama.”

“One prime candidate is Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who delivered the official GOP response to the president this week.”

“Immediately after listening to the response, the talk turned to the senator’s potential.”

“He’s definitely sending the party in the right direction,” college senior Shanae Brown said.”

“Others stressed the depth of the GOP bench when it comes to new, young leaders.”

Having John McCain, Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell be the voice of the GOP is not doing us any favors and we need more of Rubio, Paul Ryan, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul and Tim Scott.

Messaging

“The area where these Republicans showed the most frustration with the party is in messaging.”

“We don’t know how to brand our message and we are getting outworked on that, and I think that’s our major issue,” Lucas Denney, 21, said.”

“Some of the students say that is especially true when it comes to social media, a critical tool for reaching young voters.”

“That was the biggest problem. … I would go on Twitter and I would see Obama promoted. I would go on YouTube, there’s an Obama ad. I would go on Pandora and there’s an Obama ad,” Dan Morgano said, adding “[I] never heard anything from Romney when I was online.”

Sending out information via the US postal service or robo-calling is not going to win elections in the future.  The GOP needs to embrace social media and view it as a critical piece of its marketing machine.  Twitter, Facebook and YouTube are not fads that will be going away anytime soon so if the GOP chooses to dabble in this media instead of using it as part of their primary messaging then we’ll continue to lose elections.

The Coming Wave of GOP Members

“There is another big thing these college Republicans seem to be banking on when it comes to the GOP and their generation: When they do get out of school and get jobs and mortgages, taxes and government spending will suddenly become greater worries.”

“They say that’s when the Republicans will have a chance at winning over a generation that has been very elusive for the party.”

Over the coming years, a large population of college graduates will enter the workforce, start families and realize that they are in serious trouble financially.  They will be looking for a way to get out of this mess and Conservatives have a method to do just that.  We need to be there for them so we can communicate the fiscally Conservative message and win them over to our side.  Team Obama’s message is the only one getting to them now but eventually Math will win in the end and thinking people (not the O-bot sheeple) will grow weary of that message when they are faced with the harsh realities of making ends meet and saving for the future.  In the absence of communications from the GOP, people will develop their own Worldview based on messaging from the State Run Stream Media and we can’t let that happen.

Same Sex Marriage

“…Sam Zeidema, 20, who calls himself “a real conservative.” On social issues, though, he is out of sync with some of the GOP’s positions, such as its stance against same-sex marriage.”

“Zeidema, chairman of the College Republicans group, says he doesn’t feel strongly about the issue either way — and so he is not going to campaign for or against it.”

“I am not one that’s going to go out and advocate for or against the issue because I hear both sides. I understand both sides, and, I guess, it’s just hard because it doesn’t affect me personally,” he said.”

We had a classic example of how out of touch the GOP is with regard to younger people when the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) recently announced they are banning GOProud (an organization of gay Conservatives) from this year’s event.  Stupid!

I’m a big tent guy when it comes to the GOP and feel we need to welcome EVERY person who believes in fiscally Conservative principles if we have any hope of rescuing the US from its path to Socialism.  I’ve made it clear before that I am totally against making legalized same sex unions a Maginot Line for the Republican Party.  If two consenting adults are interested in fighting for fiscally conservative principles then I could care less what they do in their bedroom.  If you feel that homosexuality is a sin and it should be labeled as such then there is a place for that conversation – It’s called Church.

Republicans lost big in 2012 because of messaging and our position on social issues.  We can continue to try and legislate morality or we can focus on the common ground that will unite our party and win elections.  Nominating and voting for candidates that must pass some litmus test on social issues only ensures Leftists will continue to win elections.  There are areas where we should fight for social issues that are near and dear to our hearts – which include Same Sex Marriage, Abortion, Birth Control, Drugs, Alcohol, etc. – and we should continue to do that (even more than we’ve been doing!) but right now the political arena isn’t the place for those fights.

I agree we need to change the culture in the US and I weep because so many people in this country endorse the killing of babies every day through legal Abortion.  I want to change that and I will fight to change that but it will require a battle that will take place over years, maybe even decades, and that battle will be even harder to fight if we don’t start electing Conservatives and fix our fiscal and economic problems.  Losing more elections will not move the US culture closer to Conservative principles!

The relationship between young and old Conservatives can be a symbiotic one – New Conservative college graduates can learn much from their GOP elders and the GOP leaders would be wise to listen to the counsel of the youth.  If we work together we can start winning elections again.

Posted in politics | 1 Comment

Obamacare Is Already Hurting Americans

Remember in 2009 when Obama was pimping his Healthcare overhaul and he said this?

“If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan.”

People who worked in the real world knew this statement was extremely misleading and we tried to educate the low information voter.   Of course the Government wouldn’t forcibly remove Healthcare plans from existence but that doesn’t mean many people wouldn’t lose their healthcare plans.   As the CBO recently reported, more people will lose their health insurance as previously thought.

“In 2022, by CBO and JCT’s estimate, 7 million fewer people will have employment-based health insurance as a result of the Affordable Care Act,” the CBO announced in its new budget outlook released on Tuesday. This is up from an estimate of 4 million last August, mostly reflecting the effects of tax changes.”

How could this be?  Team Obama promised us it would be better after the Affordable Care Act was passed.

I have no sympathy for the useful idiots who supported Obamacare and now realize they were duped because there was ample evidence from other countries that this Socialized Medicine approach wouldn’t work.  The unintended consequences of Obamacare are just another proof of Quinn’s 1st Law, as Hot Air pointed out:

“Many of us saw this coming, but were told we were spreading myths by drawing logical conclusions about economic incentives, moral hazard, and possible unintended consequences. Now, of course, the White House claims they just meant no one in the federal government would actually forcefully take your health care away, never mind that they set up a situation in which losing your health care would become inevitable. Even that’s not true, though, as the Affordable Care Act does actively prohibit certain affordable health insurance options like mini-med plans and high-deductible catastrophic plans. “Take away” and “regulate out of existence” are functionally the same thing.”

When you increase the regulations and make it more attractive for smaller companies to just pay the penalty instead of offering healthcare to their employees then you dump people on the street and they are forced to join the Public Option.  Which was the goal of Team Obama all along.

Even before Obamacare kicks in fully, many have seen troubling changes to our healthcare plans – deductibles are going up, monthly premiums are going up and our responsibility for prescriptions is going up.  But in my opinion, the most troubling consequence of Obamacare is that we are seeing experienced doctors choosing to leave the workforce rather than combat the new regulations.  New graduates of Medical School are now lacking all important mentors and that will reduce the quality of the healthcare we receive once we are lucky enough to finally see a physician.

And today I was reminded how the changing healthcare landscape affects me personally.  I’m due for my annual physical and I received the following letter from my doctor’s office that gives another hint of things to come.

doc letter

My primary care physician has noticed that some insurance companies have stopped paying for lab work for annual physicals and now he must notify all patients to check with their insurance providers before coming in for lab work.

This is just the tip of the iceberg and once Obamacare hits America fully in 2014, we’ll see more services dropped by insurance companies until many people will come to the realization that private health insurance isn’t worth keeping since it pays for so little.  Welcome to the new healthcare landscape courtesy of Obamacare!

In the future you can expect lower quality of healthcare, more out-of-pocket costs and longer lines but don’t say you weren’t warned.

Posted in healthcare, politics | 6 Comments

Math Is Hard For Leftists

There was an article in Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) that makes the claim that Obama will preside over the largest decreases in Federal budget deficits as a percentage of GDP.  Here is the graph from the article.

ibd

For those who gobble up Leftist propaganda without diving deeper (i.e. low information voters), this graph proves (yes proves!!!) that Obama is a very austere President.  I’ve already proved that he isn’t (here, here and here) but I’ll go through this exercise one more time and present this same data in another way.

Using this site, here is a graph of Federal spending as a percentage of GDP.

fed spending as percentage of gdp

See that increase on the far right?  That happened during the Obama administration and it’s the highest we’ve seen since WWII.  This is Federal spending normalized to GDP so this is a fair metric to compare to previous Presidents.

Using this site, I now will look at just the Federal deficit as a percentage of GDP (which the IBD article focuses on).

def as percentage of gdp

That last nosedive at the far right is the ‘estimated’ spending for 2013 and sure enough that is a significant decrease.  But when you’ve run record Federal deficits for 4 years and your economic policies have produces (at best) a sluggish ‘recovery’ then any small cuts in spending will have a big percentage decrease from previous years.  This is especially true when you are dividing those deficit amounts by an anemic GDP number.

Is someone really trying to make the case that running Federal deficit to GDP ratios of 5.5% is something to be happy about?  Reducing Federal deficit to GDP ratios from 8-10% to 5.5% (which is still the highest in recent history) is not worthy of praise.  If my kids get D’s on their report cards but bring them up to C’s the next quarter, my wife and I will not reward them with a trip to Disney World.

Math is really hard for Leftists and the Low Information Voters.

Posted in economics, politics | 3 Comments

Defending Maker’s Mark

 

 

071112_Makers_Mark_1725x810-PAN_18683

UPDATE 17-FEB-13 – Maker’s Mark has reversed their decision and decided to keep their proof the same.  See details in comments section.

Maker’s Mark decided to lower the alcohol content of their flagship product and while many have expressed their dismay, I have to agree with their decision.

From the USA article:

In an interview Monday, Bill Samuels Jr. said he failed to foresee a worldwide surge in demand for premium bourbon when he was still in charge of the brand about six years ago. As a result, Maker’s Mark is being diluted to 42 percent alcohol by volume, from 45 percent, so more of the whiskey can be bottled to meet demand. That’s a cut from 90 proof to 84 proof.”

As a Free Market Capitalist, my first reaction was “They should’ve raised the price” but as I thought more on this decision, I feel they made the right call.

For those who aren’t familiar with how Bourbon is made, let me go over that first.  Three grains (typically Corn, Malted Barley and Rye) are combined with iron free water and boiled to make the “Mash” – and as someone who worked in this industry for a year during college, I can tell you that I loved the smell of the “Mash” as it was boiling.  Yeast is then added to the “Mash” and the solution is allowed to settle for a few days.  During this time, the yeast converts the sugars in the “Mash” to alcohol and CO2 and then the grains are removed yielding a product similar to normal beer (around 10% alcohol).  The beer is then put through a distilling process that boils the beer and through several distilling steps the alcohol is condensed to a “White Lightning” that has an alcohol content of around 50-60%.  This “White Lightning” is then placed in White Oak barrels that have been charred on the inside and then the barrels are placed in a warehouse to age for at least 2 years but most companies age the Bourbon 4-6 years.  The aging process allows the “White Lightning” to seep in and out of the wood, soaking in the sugars and the brown color of the charred wood.  At the end of that aging time, the barrels are removed and the “White Lightning” is filtered and cut with water (called gauging) to the desired proof (usually around 90 proof or 45% alcohol) before being bottled.

So you can see the marketing dilemma for Bourbon manufacturers.  They must manufacture product today to meet Market needs 5 years into the future!  There are three outcomes of a Bourbon company’s long term market research – 1) You guess right, 2) you overestimate demand or 3) you underestimate demand.

If you guess right then you pat yourself on the back and count your money.  If you overestimate your demand then you are left with barrels that will have to sit longer in the warehouse or you choose to fill bottles that will sit in a different type of warehouse (neither is preferable from a financial viewpoint).  This overestimation problem does have a creative solution where the distiller can let the bourbon mature a little longer and then sell those bottles as a ‘premium’ brand.  The third outcome is the most troubling – you underestimate your demand and you don’t have enough barrels to meet the Market.  This is the problem Maker’s Mark faces right now.

They could choose to pull barrels out early but this would lessen the quality of their product and a company like Maker’s Mark does NOT want to do that!  Another option is to raise the price of their product but then you cut out a loyal segment of your consumer base.  Maker’s Mark has settled into a nice mid-high range of bourbon quality and if you raise the price then customers will either move to other higher quality bourbons at similar price points or buy another mid-high range Bourbon that Maker’s Mark competes with.  The Market for Bourbon is obviously strong but there is way too much competition for Maker’s Mark to act like Apple or Microsoft and just raise the price without expecting negative implications.  The option that Maker’s Mark settled on- slightly reducing their alcohol content which will allow them to get more bottles per barrel – seems like the right call.

Full disclosure, I am a Bourbon lover and I drink Maker’s Mark far more than any other brand but my rotation includes many other brands such as Knob Creek, Colonel E. H. Taylor, Blanton’s, Booker’s, Woodford Reserve and many other higher end Bourbons.  So Maker’s Mark, for me, is my standard and although I mix in the others when I feel like it, I buy more Maker’s Mark than any other brand.  Raising the price of Maker’s Mark would have caused me to add another mid-high quality bourbon (Bulleit, Basil Hayden’s, etc.) to my rotation and this would’ve replaced my purchases of Maker’s Mark.

When I drink Maker’s Mark, I drink it ‘on the rocks’ with a little water added so as long as the quality of Maker’s Mark is the same with the lower proof, I’ll just add less water to get the same great taste and I won’t see a difference.  If you are used to drinking Bourbon ‘neat’ (straight, no ice) then you might taste a difference but I rarely drink my Bourbon like that even with the high end brands (Pappy Van Winkle being the exception).

So for this Bourbon lover/consumer, Maker’s Mark made the right business decision.

I do not fault the Maker’s Mark marketing team for not realizing, 5 years ago, how Team Obama/Reid/Pelosi would drive the country into such despair that more Americans would be driven to drink alcohol!

Addendum – If you are interested in learning more about Maker’s Mark and becoming an Ambassador then go to this link.  You will not be disappointed!

Posted in economics, Uncategorized | 5 Comments

Climate Change And Blizzards

Just who are the true deniers?

The Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) cult has been beside themselves the past couple of years every time a large storm or hurricane hits the US and they are quick to blame human consumption of fossil fuels (i.e. atmospheric CO2).

The latest Northeastern US snow storm is no exception and today I saw a tweet from blogger Dani1981 who writes for the AGW shill site Skeptical Science:

You can see my quick response to this lunacy and she responded by calling me a denier but in reality it is she and the whole AGW cult who are the true deniers.  And by this I mean deniers of history and I’ll prove this by showing record blizzards that occurred in North America before the AGW cult started spewing their lies.

1888 (Northeastern US)

“This snowstorm was so massive it became a historical event. In terms of storm severity factors, this one had it all: enormous amounts of snow, frigid temperatures, howling winds whipping up monstrous snow drifts — and a widespread area of effect that covered the entire northeastern United States from New England to the Chesapeake Bay, including major metropolitan areas like New York City.  More than 400 people died during the storm, including more than 100 who were lost at sea.”

1959 (Mt. Shasta California)

“In 1959, a storm dumped a huge amount of snow on Mount Shasta, Calif. The 189 inches (4.8 m) of snow recorded at the Mount Shasta Ski Bowl is the largest snowfall from a single storm in North America. However, many believe that 1993’s “Storm of the Century” has eclipsed this mark in terms of the actual volume of snow, due to heavy snowfall across such a massive area.”

1971 (Quebec and Ontario, Canada)

“This March nor’easter (a powerful storm that blows in from the Atlantic Ocean) created classic blizzard conditions throughout eastern Canada, dumping a foot and a half (45.7 cm) of snow on Montreal and more than two feet (61 cm) elsewhere in the region. On top of the snowfall, the storm produced heavy winds that whipped the snow into the air and obliterated visibility. These conditions, combined with frigid temperatures, resulted in more than 20 fatalities.”

1978 (New England)

“This dreadful storm stalled over New England for more than a day, dropping up to 4 inches (10.2 cm) of snow per hour. Boston, Mass. and several communities in Rhode Island were hit hardest, but even New York City — located some four hours south of Boston — felt the storm’s effects. Meteorologists estimate snow totals between 1 and 3 feet (30.5 and 91.4 cm), with Boston’s total accumulation of 27.1 inches (68.8 cm) setting the city’s single-storm record. Wind speeds measured well over 100 mph (161 kph), causing severe visibility and drifting problems.”

1967 (Midwest US)

“The Midwest has suffered through many brutal blizzards and monstrous snow storms. However, many parts of this region are more sparsely populated than the eastern U.S., so the effects of these storms haven’t been as acute. This storm, however, hit not just Chicago but cities as disparate as Kalamazoo, Mich., and Gary, Ind.”

“Snow totals topped 2 feet (61 cm), and winds exceeded 50 mph (80.5 kph). Sadly, the storm left 76 dead — 26 in Chicago alone. It set the record for a 24-hour snowfall in Chicago (23 inches or 58.4 cm). Strangely, the area saw record high temperatures in the 60s and a severe tornado outbreak in the days before the storm hit.”

Here is a nice graph showing yearly snowfall totals from 1885 to present for the city of Chicago and the graph is shown below:

chisnow

Notice the largest snowfalls occurred in the 1970’s when climate “scientists” were telling us the Earth was doomed because of Global Cooling!

And finally, the Real Science blog has a graph showing the relationship between snowfall and atmospheric CO2 concentrations.  For math challenged Leftists reading this blog, here’s a hint – THERE ISN’T ONE!

snowfall vs co2We have to confront the brutal facts – The AGW cult’s climate predictions are just not materializingThey can’t comprehend this fact but instead of rejecting their flawed theory they grow frustrated that people won’t buy their snake oil.  They then demonstrate their desperation by trying to win people to their side by playing on emotions.  Typical Leftists, they are true deniers of history.

Posted in Climate Change | 1 Comment

Dr. Benjamin Carson For President

In case you missed it, Dr. Benjamin Carson spoke at the annual National Prayer Breakfast in Washington Thursday and it is a must-watch 27 minutes for anyone concerned about the path the United States is on.

I don’t need to add anything to this except to say that I wish our elected officials in Washington DC had 1% of the character and passion that Dr. Carson has.   I’d vote for Dr. Carson right now to replace about 90% of the people in Congress and the White House.

Watch all of this and pay attention to the expression on Obama’s face.

Posted in politics | 1 Comment

Climate Change And The Ikea Effect

As someone who considers himself to be driven by data (particularly with technical problems), I have struggled over the past few years with the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) cult scientists and their inability to see the forest for the trees.  But now I realize why.

Full disclosure – I am not a climate scientist and the AGW cult leaders Michael Mann, Gavin Schmidt, et al. have spent orders of magnitude more time studying climate science that I have.  But I do have bachelors and masters degrees in Electrical Engineering so I do have a good grasp of quantum physics and electromagnetic waves which is really what the heart of AGW theory is about.  I understand the AGW theory and have written a blog post about here.

For a theory to gain acceptance it must 1) stand up to repeated experiments, 2) be validated on large scales and 3) have its model predictions observed in the real world.  For the past 5 years I have studied the theories behind AGW and compared the predictions to the measurable data and it’s obvious to me the main theory has a very inconvenient problem.   As I’ve shown before, although atmospheric CO2 concentrations are continuing to rise, global temperatures are not rising accordingly.

cru temps

cru temp vs co2

Besides this obvious data, the evidence against the AGW cult is legion.  There are other scientific ways to disprove AGW as shown at Real Science.  Real Science also showed how the AGW climate scientists have manipulated the data to ‘prove’ their theory.  Even the climate models, the sacred cows of the AGW cult, have failed.

So why do so many climate scientists, and especially the cult leaders, still shill this easily falsified theory?  For certain, people like Al Gore are in it for the money but scientists who are plugging away in labs and universities don’t see these large sums of money.  They do get grants, publish papers and justify their existence but most scientists I know are more interested in understanding Mother Nature and discovering ways to improve life on Earth.  Why do they still write papers in support of this AGW theory?

My answer to this question came when I heard this story on Morning Edition during my commute to work this morning and I finally realized why AGW scientists cling so bitterly to their easily dis-proven theory.  They suffer from the Ikea Effect!

From the NPR story, here is what the Ikea Effect is (emphasis mine):

“The name for this psychological phenomenon derives from the love millions of Americans display toward their self-assembled furniture (or, dare we say it, their badly self-assembled furniture) from the do-it-yourself store with the Scandinavian name.”

“Imagine that, you know, you built a table,” said Daniel Mochon, a Tulane University marketing professor, who has studied the phenomenon. “Maybe it came out a little bit crooked. Probably your wife or your neighbor would see it for what it is, you know? A shoddy piece of workmanship. But to you that table might seem really great, because you’re the one who created it. It’s the fruit of your labor. And that is really the idea behind the Ikea Effect.”

“Most of us intuitively believe that the things we labor at are the things we love. Mochon and his colleagues, Michael Norton at the Harvard Business School and Dan Ariely at Duke University, have turned that concept on its head. What if, they asked, it isn’t love that leads to labor, but labor that leads to love?”

“In a series of experiments, they have demonstrated that people attach greater value to things they built than if the very same product was built by someone else. And in new experiments published recently, they’ve discovered why it happens: Building your own stuff boosts your feelings of pride and competence, and also signals to others that you are competent.”

That’s it!  The AGW scientists, who’ve invested years in support of this theory, are incapable of seeing the inherent flaws with their work.

As an engineering professional, I once had the unfortunate privilege to spend 2 years developing a product that had to be cancelled because the design could not be scaled up in high volume manufacturing.  I get it, it was incredibly demoralizing when I realized that 2 years of my professional career was wasted and amounted to nothing.  But in the end, I had to confront the brutal facts that this design (aka theory) was flawed and didn’t work in the real world.  It’s tough to reach that conclusion but that is how science works and you move one.

Think about the AGW cult leaders who have spent decades working on their models, predictions and blog posts.  Since they are victims of the Ikea Effect, they will not be able to confront the brutal facts because they look at their labors and while everyone else sees a broken table, they see a priceless, perfect piece of furniture.

Since the dawn of Man, the climate/weather system has confounded us because it is so complex.  If AGW scientists believe they have cracked the code and found a way to predict future climate then that is a very good feeling they have.  When confronted with data that threatens their hubris, they will dismiss it out of hand because they don’t want that good feeling to go away!

Yes, AGW scientists suffer from the Ikea Effect and while I sympathize with them, as a man of science who values following the data, I implore them to put their egos aside and confront the brutal facts.

Posted in Climate Change | 6 Comments

Remember when Democrats and Republicans said we needed to pass the Senate Fiscal Cliff deal to take additional taxes “off the table?” When will they ever learn? This is the plan, every few months there is another ‘crisis’ that we must cave on that results in more spending with no meaningful cuts to entitlements. Remember, it’s Cliffs All The Way Down! https://cosmoscon.com/2012/12/06/its-cliffs-all-the-way-down/

Mike's avatarThe Conservative Citizen

130117113749-n-tax-changes-2013-reform-00012325-video-15

“There is no doubt we need additional revenue.” Of course you do.

Just in case you missed O’s pre-Super Bowl interview on CBS (if you were like Rat, you hurriedly changed the channel until it was over), here’s a “news flash”:

The Socialist-in-Chief made it clear that he fully intends to continue raising taxes:

“There is no doubt we need additional revenue, coupled with smart spending reductions, in order to bring down our deficit. And we can do it in a gradual way so it doesn’t have a huge impact.

As I said, when you look at some of these deductions that certain folks are able to take advantage of, the average person can’t take advantage of them. The average person doesn’t have access to Cayman Island accounts, the average person doesn’t have access to carried interest income where they end up paying a much lower rate on billions of…

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Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Due Process No Longer Needed

predator-firing-missile4

Unbelievable!

NBC has obtained a copy of a Department of Justice Whitepaper justifying drone attacks on US citizens without going through due process – otherwise known as the 5th and 14th Amendments to the US Constitution.

Here are a few shocking excerpts from the NBC report (emphasis mine):

“A confidential Justice Department memo concludes that the U.S. government can order the killing of American citizens if they are believed to be “senior operational leaders” of al-Qaida or “an associated force” — even if there is no intelligence indicating they are engaged in an active plot to attack the U.S.

“The condition that an operational leader present an ‘imminent’ threat of violent attack against the United States does not require the United States to have clear evidence that a specific attack on U.S. persons and interests will take place in the immediate future,” the memo states.”

“Instead, it says, an “informed, high-level” official of the U.S. government may determine that the targeted American has been “recently” involved in “activities” posing a threat of a violent attack and “there is no evidence suggesting that he has renounced or abandoned such activities.” The memo does not define “recently” or “activities.”

“This is a chilling document,” said Jameel Jaffer, deputy legal director of the ACLU, which has sued unsuccessfully in court to obtain administration memos about the targeted killing of Americans. “Basically, it argues that the government has the right to carry out the extrajudicial killing of an American citizen. … It recognizes some limits on the authority it sets out, but the limits are elastic and vaguely defined, and it’s easy to see how they could be manipulated.”

“A lawful killing in self-defense is not an assassination,” the white paper reads. “In the Department’s view, a lethal operation conducted against a U.S. citizen whose conduct poses an imminent threat of violent attack against the United States would be a legitimate act of national self-defense that would not violate the assassination ban. Similarly, the use of lethal force, consistent with the laws of war, against an individual who is a legitimate military target would be lawful and would not violate the assassination ban.”

The US is in a war with radical Islamic terrorists and I have no issues with killing these terrorists when we have justifiable intelligence but that only goes for those who are not US citizens.  We have a Constitution that provides special protection to US citizens and before we kill them we have to go through a due process.  If the President, who swears an oath to uphold the US Constitution, ignores these laws then the US is no longer a Republic but a Dictatorship.

I hate to say I told you so but……Elections have consequences!

Posted in politics | 2 Comments

How To Spot Obama Shills

In the beginning of Obama’s presidency, it was more difficult to conclusively identify certain journalists and economists who were ignoring data and instead just shilling for Obama.  Sure I had my suspicions of the usual suspects and people like Paul Krugman were a given but no respectable person considers those Leftists objective.

The economy was so horrible and the “Blame Bush” meme was fresh and easier to swallow coming off the heels of a terrible recession so many who supported Obama’s yet to be enacted plans could’ve been supporting them on the theory they’d work.  In 2009/2010 we couldn’t conclude these supporters were just Obama cheerleaders who were only interested in spinning the data to further Leftist propaganda.

But not now – We have 4 years of Obama plans/legislation that has failed miserably so anyone supporting Obama now can’t be taken seriously in the future.

On Friday we saw another lack luster Jobs Report from the BLS and Jim Pethokoukis’ (@JimPethokoukis) blog post describes how life under Obamanomics is nothing like was advertised.

“The January jobs report provides a sober reminder that the US labor market, while recovering, remains extraordinarily weak. The official unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% as 157,000 net new jobs were created, according to the Labor Department.”

“To provide some context, recall that back in January 2009 Team Obama economists Jared Bernstein and Christina Romer predicted the unemployment rate by 2013 would be closing in on 5%. (Of course, Obama’s economists also thought we’d be in a mini-boom of 4%-plus economic growth. That hasn’t happened either.) Oh, and at the January pace of job creation, we won’t return to pre-Great Recession employment levels until after 2025, according to the Hamilton Project’s Jobs Gap calculator.

The Hamilton Project’s Jobs Gap calculator does indeed show that if future months look like January 2013 (157,000 net jobs added) then we won’t close the jobs gap until 2025.

Courtesy Hamilton Project

Courtesy Hamilton Project

Any sane person who understands even a little about economics would conclude that the past 4 years of Obamanomics has not produced the recovery that the US is accustomed to following a deep recession.  But there is at least one economics professor who disagrees and proves that he falls into the Obama shill category!

Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers), an economics professor at the University of Michigan, sent out this tweet after the BLS jobs data was released.

justin1

“This recovery is humming along.”  Amazing…..

To prove how our current ‘recovery’ is not what is expected, I grabbed GDP data from the BEA website going back to 1947 and there are a few graphs that I’d like to share.

First, here is the graph of quarterly GDP percent changes from 1947 to 2012Q4.

gdp history

Notice how the long term GDP growth rate is around 5% except for those bars to the far right?  In case you couldn’t figure it out from the graph, those GDP growth rates are the ones under Obama’s leadership!

Now let’s zoom in and compare recoveries under two different Presidents who came into office after massive recessions – Reagan and Obama.

This graph below shows the economic recovery under Reagan and notice that GDP growth rates were around 7.5% during the four years after the recession.

gdp reagan

But under the Obama regime we see that GDP growth rates after our most recent recession were only around 2.5%.

gdp obama

History has shown that when the US comes out of a deep recession, the recovery is very robust (Quarterly GDP growth rates >5%) but that has not been the case under Obama.

Only a person who shills for Obama would claim “this recovery is humming along” and economics students at the University of Michigan should petition for a refund of their tuition.

Keep an eye out for other journalists and economists who continue to ignore the failed policies of the Obama regime and take their reports/opinions with a huge Leftist grain of salt in the future.  No person who supports Liberty and the Free Market can support Obama now.  They are the enemy and this is War!

Posted in economics, politics | 2 Comments

Government Spending And GDP Growth

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released their initial estimate of US 4th Quarter GDP growth on Wednesday and it wasn’t pretty.

“The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.1 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports, its first quarterly contraction since the second quarter of 2009.”

“Economists were not expecting to hear that. Before the number was released, they were predicting BEA would say there was modest — 1.1 percent — growth in the last three months of 2012.”

“According to BEA: “the decrease in real [gross domestic product] in the fourth quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from private inventory investment, federal government spending, and exports that were partly offset by positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment.” The Associated Press says the main factor was “the biggest cut in defense spending in 40 years.”

So you can officially throw out “the economy is improving”, “recovery summer”, “pivot to jobs” and other rhetoric from the Obama White House.  And forget that the US economy has normally seen GDP growth rates in the 4-6% range after a deep recession.  This is the new normal and GDP growth rates of less than 1% or negative are now what we expect from Keynesian economics.

Granted these GDP numbers are usually revised later, sometimes as much as 1 percentage point, but the 4th Quarter GDP numbers could be revised DOWN too!  Remember – The classical definition of a Recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth so if we see another minus sign on GDP growth 3 months from now we’ll officially be in a new Recession.

Did you catch what one of the reasons was for the drop in GDP?  In case you missed it in the NPR quote from above, Reuters can help (emphasis mine).

“If it were not for the hit from slower inventory growth and the deepest plunge in defense spending in 40 years, the economy would have grown at a respectable 2.5 percent rate.”

Reduced spending by the Federal Governement is one of the major reasons the GDP growth rate was negative!  So it’s come to this….the US economy is dependent on increased spending by the Federal Government.

And that statement, no matter how troubling to Free Market Conservatives such as myself, is actually true in this new age we live in.

Over the past 4 years, US Federal Government spending as a percentage of GDP has increased to levels we have not seen since World War II.  This data can be obtained here and I’ve graphed it below.

spending vs gdp

After World War II the US Federal Government spending was about 18-20% of GDP but after Obama came into office it jumped to 25% of GDP.  Since the GDP total has a larger percentage of the Federal Government component then we can truly say that reduced spending by our Federal Government does impact our GDP.

And that graph only represents Federal spending.  When we add in State and Local government spending we see that total Government spending is over 40% of our GDP!

Gosh, I remember a time when the GDP was more dependent on private industry versus the redistribution of our Federal tax dollars for entitlement programs that consume over 90% of our Federal Tax revenues.

Welcome to the age of Obamanomics!  We are all Socialists now.

newsweek-socialists_now

Posted in economics, Entitlement Programs, politics | 1 Comment

It’s Time For Immigration Reform

prohibido

It appears that the Senate has reached a bipartisan agreement on Immigration Reform and I support this long overdue legislation.  From CNN:

Washington (CNN) – “Millions of undocumented immigrants would get immediate but provisional status to live and work in America under a compromise plan proposed Monday by a bipartisan group of eight senators.”

“While temporarily removing legal uncertainty for the nation’s 11 million undocumented immigrants, the senators’ outline also called for strengthening border controls, improved monitoring of visitors and cracking down on hiring undocumented workers.”

“Only after those steps occurred could the undocumented immigrants already in the country begin the process of getting permanent residence — green cards — as a step toward citizenship, the senators told a news conference.”

“They would no longer be deported, provided they don’t have a criminal record. They would no longer be harassed, they would be allowed to stay here and work,” said Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York in describing the immediate impact of the framework if crafted into legislation and enacted.”

It appears that the plan is similar to a two part plan I proposed in 2011 – 1) increases security on our borders and 2) provides a path to citizenship for those who are law abiding.  And if you’re interested, here is another, more detailed plan that I can also support.

In my opinion, Republicans have missed their window of opportunity to get a political boost out of this plan since the MSM will spin this new deal as something the Republicans were ‘forced’ to do based on the voting demographics of the last election.   From this exit polling data, you can see where Hispanics voted overwhelmingly in favor of Obama, the margin increased from 2008.

hispanic voter

I am supportive of an immigration reform plan not because it is the politically right thing to do (passing this bill might win future Hispanic voters) but because it is the right thing we must do as human beings living in a country that values capitalism and freedom.

The genie can’t be put back in the bottle.  We have at least 11 million illegal immigrants in this country and we can’t expect to forcefully deport them.  Maybe I have an overly optimistic view but I believe that most of these immigrants came to the US to contribute to society, start a new life and take advantages of the freedoms we cherish.  Many of them have kids in schools, own businesses and contribute to our society and those people are who we need in this country right now!

It’s my belief that many immigrants can show other legal citizens how hard work and good old fashioned capitalism can lead to a better life as opposed to the life Democrats support that keeps many on Welfare and Food Stamps.

I see this path to citizenship for the vast majority of law abiding, hard working immigrants as a type of blood transfusion to our country.  A small but significant quantity of hard working citizens starting businesses, paying taxes and stimulating the economy might inspire others to break the chains of government handouts that have enslaved them for generations.

Posted in Entitlement Programs, Immigration, politics | 5 Comments