NPR Wakes Up

It’s too early to declare the dumbest headline in 2013 but remember this one when we get to the end of the year.

npr big govt headline

From the NPR story (emphasis mine):

“For years, Democratic politicians have been shy about talking up the virtues of government. It was all the way back in 1996 that President Bill Clinton declared “the era of big government is over.”

“That may have changed with President Obama’s second inaugural address. Obama declared that only through government and “collective action” can the nation achieve its full promise.”

“The president was willing to make the case for government being one component that helps our economy,” says former Virginia Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello. “That’s something you haven’t heard much over the past generation or so.”

Has NPR and Representative Tom Perriello been asleep for the past 4 years?  Did they forget about Obama’s statement to private business owners that “They didn’t build that?”

Have they forgotten about Obamacare, the NLRB holding businesses hostage until they gave in to Union demands, The FDA shaking down medical device companies or the EEOC forcing companies to hire people without a high school education?

Even the Left leaning Economist magazine had an article last year showing how over regulation was interfering with the Free Market in the US.

Let’s take a look at the Federal Government spending since 1969.

actual spending

See that upward trend with a step function increase under Obama?  I guess NPR missed that one.

Let’s take a look at the average deficit to GDP ratio since 1980.

avg deficit vs gdp

See that spike up during Obama’s first term as President?  Did NPR miss this one too?

It’s great that the Leftist media ignored the over regulation and expansion of the Federal Government during Obama’s first term but now they are suddenly realizing that Obama is just a tax and spend Liberal.

Shocker!

Posted in economics, npr, Over Regulation, politics | 3 Comments

How About Dem Apples?

iphone5-inside_1

After Wednesday’s Market close, Apple announced its fiscal 2013 1st Quarter results that ended on 29-DEC-12 and after hours trading is causing the stock to drop significantly.  The Market is a harsh mistress as evidenced by the following financial results that 99% of companies would kill for:

“Apple® today announced financial results for its 13-week fiscal 2013 first quarter ended December 29, 2012. The Company posted record quarterly revenue of $54.5 billion and record quarterly net profit of $13.1 billion, or $13.81 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $46.3 billion and net profit of $13.1 billion, or $13.87 per diluted share, in the 14-week year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 38.6 percent compared to 44.7 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 61 percent of the quarter’s revenue.”

That’s right, Apple reported a net quarterly profit of $13.1 billion (with a ‘b’) and the Market is treating them like they are going out of business!

Full disclosure here – I am not affiliated with Apple and I don’t own any of their stock but my family is an Apple family (we have 7 Apple products in the house right now).  While I’m an Apple fan and root for the company to do well, it was another part of the quarterly results from this WSJ article that startled me:

“Apple said it sold 47.8 million iPhones, up from 37 million from the year-earlier period and below some analyst expectations.”

Are you kidding me?  If Apple is selling 47.8 million iPhones over the course of 3 months then they are manufacturing at least 47.8 million phones in roughly that same time period (granted the manufacturing started before the product introduction).

As an Engineer who has worked in a manufacturing environment almost my whole career, making that many widgets in 3 months got me wondering what that volume broke down in weekly, daily and hourly rates since that is what we live by in the manufacturing world.

Assuming Apple’s iPhone manufacturing sites operate 24 hours a day/7 days a week (which I bet they do), 47.8 million iPhones in 3 months breaks down to:

525,275 iPhones per day

21,886 iPhones per hour

365 iPhones per minute

6 iPhones per second

I doubt Apple has just one manufacturing plant in the world and I would expect that they have about half a dozen for risk mitigation but even if you spread that volume over 6 plants, that still means an iPhone rolls off the assembly line every second!  And we still haven’t talked about other Apple products – Macs, iPods, iPads and iPad minis – and what that adds to the daily output of these manufacturing plants.

I am amazed at the supply chain involved, the communications/logistics involved with suppliers and the organization that is required to keep this behemoth of a manufacturing enterprise running 24/7.  I don’t know if you’ve ever seen a picture of the inside of an iPhone 5 but these widgets aren’t exactly trivial to assemble and the components aren’t exactly ‘off the shelf’ if you know what I mean – batteries, IC chips, screens, cases, cameras, buttons, connector cables, etc.  This means every Apple supplier is also manufacturing at least 47.8 million components and shipping them to Apple assembly plants around the world in the same time period.  Cranking out 47.8 million iPhones in 3 months is nothing short of incredible.

Apple CEO Tim Cook spoke to this at Wednesday’s conference:

“He urged investors to be skeptical of reports about the company cutting orders with manufacturers. Mr. Cook said Apple gets parts from various suppliers, and manufacturing efficiency can vary, making it hard to discern the company’s overall business based on individual pieces of information.”

As a fellow manufacturer of complex products (medical devices) I can wholeheartedly agree with Mr. Cook!  Getting all the pieces in place every day to meet your output objectives is why the Manufacturing sector is only suited for those who can take the daily pressures.  I give a big hat tip to Mr. Cook and the entire Apple team for their efforts.

One parting thought on this post – Notice that Apple was able to accomplish all this even though we don’t have an Apple Czar on Obama’s cabinet who is guiding the design/supply/manufacturing/sales of Smart Phones.  The Invisible Hand is still at work in a World that is demonizing Capitalism and moving towards Socialism.  I wonder how long we can continue to do this.

Posted in economics | 2 Comments

Obama Inauguration Pictures

The New York Times published a high resolution picture of the crowd behind Obama as he was giving his 2nd inauguration speech and the picture is shown below.

overall pic

If you click on the NY Times link, you’ll see that you can zoom in to see the individual faces and many of the more popular people have already been tagged.  What you will notice is that about a third of the people in this picture are doing something other than listening/looking at Obama.  Granted this is but an instant in time during the speech but I think it is telling that people were easily occupied with other things when sitting behind the President of the United States as he gives his inauguration speech.

I’ve taken the liberty to find some humorous and telling pictures of the crowd and I’ll share them below.

I think this kid summed up the reaction that most people had to the Divider-In-Chief’s speech.

kid sleeping

This group of youngsters seemed to be more interested in playing Angry Birds.

playing angry birds

Was this guy yawning or doing his best Joe Wilson impersonation?  Either way, the guy to the right was not pleased.

yawn or joe wilson

Al Franken lives in Minnesota so you’d think he’d be acclimated to cold weather but it doesn’t appear so from this picture.

al franken

The following picture has many interesting items.  Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius was busy taking pictures with her phone, Robert Gibbs looks like he’s in pain (understandable after spending years lying for Obama) and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan is looking for that Sandy relief package.

sebilius gibbs and donovan

Here we see Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sitting next to former President Jimmy Carter.  This would not be my recommendation for someone who has a brain that is on the mend. God help her and I hope the peanut farmer from Georgia didn’t set back her recovery.

hillary clinton

Someone should have woken up the economically challenged Jerrold Nadler (D-NY).

jerrold nadler

I see that Newt Gingrich is judging Obama during this speech.  Good!

newt

I agree with the expression on the face of Carolyn Maloney (D-NY).

carolyn maloney

I feel sorry for the guy sitting behind Debbie Wasserman Schultz and I bet he couldn’t see a thing because of her hair.

dws

I don’t know who this guy is but I feel his pain.

angry dude

And finally, this picture sums it all up.  The heavy eyes and scowls on the faces tell us how we feel about 4 more years of Obama.  What was Barbara Milkulski wearing that got the guy in the red tie so excited?  Poor Patrick Toomey can’t even watch!

sums it up

Sigh…..Four. More. Years.

Posted in politics | 7 Comments

Losing Our Religion

in god fewer trust

In October 2012 there was a report from the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life that reveals people in the United States are losing their religion.

Here is the main graph from the report:

unaffiliated growth

From the poll, 20% of the people in the US say they are unaffiliated with a religion and this includes agnostics and atheists.   That means 1 out of every 5 people in the US has no connection to any religion.

A deeper dive into the poll data shows that this increase in people being unaffiliated with religion can be attributed to younger people.

by generation

The rise in people who characterize themselves as unaffiliated with religion comes almost exclusively from Millennials (people born between 1981 and 1994).

There was one other piece of this report that I feel is noteworthy:

not looking

88% of those who are unaffiliated with a religion ARE NOT LOOKING!  Gone are the days when churches worked to minister to those who were called ‘seekers’ because the people who aren’t religious are not seeking.

So what does this data tell us?

Just because someone isn’t affiliated with an official religion doesn’t mean that person can’t be considered a believer in a particular religion.  A Christian doesn’t have to belong to an officially recognized church to be still considered in the Church/Faith.  These people can still fellowship and worship with others in homes or other places outside of any organized religion but I have to believe that the vast majority of people who characterized themselves as unaffiliated with any religion don’t fall into this special exception.

The US is on a path to become a nation where a majority of its citizens are not associated with any religion.  Drawing a trend line on the first graph shows that every 5 years the number of people who are unaffiliated with a religion increases by 5 percentage points so that means in 30 years half the people in the US will fall into that category.

And that estimate is conservative because as this NPR story shows, the percent of the US population that are unaffiliated with religion has increased significantly over the past decade.

unaffiliated increasing

So it is quite possible that in one more generation we could see a majority of US citizens unaffiliated with any religion.

As a citizen of the US and one who is passionate about individual liberties, the fact that more Americans are not affiliated with a religion is not that troublesome to me.  Being affiliated with a religion is not, in itself, anti-American because this country was founded on Freedom of Religion and this also means respecting the Rights of individuals to decline religious affiliations.

But as a Christian and someone who has experienced the saving Grace of Jesus Christ, this data from Pew upsets me.

This data shows that Christians are not doing the work that we are called to do.  The Bible is very clear that Christians are not to be relegated to a hermit lifestyle and keep this Gospel to ourselves.  Jesus, as our example, lived and ministered to those who needed His help and we should too.  The marching orders for Christians are very simple – Come and See, Go and Tell.  Once we have come and seen the risen Christ (through a realization that our sins are covered through the death and resurrection of Jesus) we are then commanded to go and tell others.

When was the last time you shared the Gospel with someone?

When was the last time you lived your life so that others would see you and realize that there was something inside you that set you apart from the world?

When was the last time someone asked you why you go to church on Sunday?

Gone are the days when we could rely on preachers in buildings reaching those who are lost and needing God’s Grace.  Large stadiums are not filled with people hearing Billy Graham preach the Gospel.

God could’ve set up a system where angels periodically appeared to people and shared the Gospel but the Creator of the Universe didn’t choose to do that.  Like it or not, ALL Christians have the responsibility to spread the Gospel and share our testimonies with those who need to hear it. This is not the time to stay in your comfort zone.

People need the Lord, now more than ever.

Posted in christianity | 10 Comments

The Lunatic Left

I’ve said many times that the Left isn’t serious about reducing our $16+ trillion debt or our $1+ trillion annual budget deficits.  They are only concerned about punishing the successful and passing out more goodies to their base.

Do you still not believe me?

220px-Jerrold_Nadler,_Official_Portrait,_c112th_CongressLet me introduce you to Democratic Representative from New York, Jerrold Nadler (@RepJerryNadler) and his latest plan to get us through this debt ceiling.  From The Hill article (emphasis mine):

“A group of House Democrats accused Republicans of having “weaponized” the debt ceiling Wednesday, and are pushing to abolish it.”

“The lawmakers blasted GOP members as taking the economic wellbeing of the nation hostage to achieve political victory, and are hoping to scrap the debt limit once and for all as a danger looming over the economy.”

“The Republicans have chosen to exploit the routine necessity of raising the debt ceiling as a means of blackmailing the American people in order to impose an extremist agenda,” said Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.), a leading sponsor of the measure abolishing the ceiling.”

Yep, you read that right.  He just wants to abolish the debt ceiling and allow our government to write blank checks that our children and grand children can’t possibly pay.

Since Washington DC is now in the habit of drafting fantasy legislation, Representative Nadler should tack on an amendment that abolishes Cancer too.

And remember that this is the same Jerrold Nadler that pushed for the minting of a $1 trillion coin that would be deposited in a Federal Reserve Bank and then the US Government could write checks from that deposit.

Leftists aren’t serious about the doom that awaits our Nation in the very near future and this is just another example.

Posted in economics, politics | 13 Comments

Obama Presser on 14-JAN-13

Image

In case you were at work today (like me) and missed the Whiner-In-Chief give another presser, let me encourage you to read the transcript because three very important facts were revealed about Obama.

Obama is Inconsistent

As predicted, there is another ‘crisis’ facing our country and this time it’s the raising of the Debt ceiling.  This will come as no shock to Conservatives but in February we will reach the point where the US Government won’t have enough money to pay our bills which include our normal out of control spending and the interest on our national debt.

So right on cue, Obama told reporters on Monday that the debt ceiling must be raised.  From the NPR story:

“Obama made the case that increasing the debt ceiling only lets the government pay its outstanding bills — and has nothing to do with future spending.”

Obama hoped that glossing over raising the debt ceiling would make us believe that this was something he has always been in favor of, even when our National Debt was less than $16 trillion.

But no…..

Obama voted against debt ceiling in 2006 and gave a rousing speech on the floor of the Senate that I’d agree with today:

“Here are some of the key parts of Obama’s speech:

“Mr. OBAMA: Mr. President, I rise today to talk about America’s debt problem. The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies.”

“[…]
Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that ‘‘the buck stops here.’’ Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better. I therefore intend to oppose the effort to increase America’s debt limit.”

But the low information voter doesn’t remember that so I’m sure they applauded the Short-Term-Memory-In-Chief today.

Obama is Financially Illiterate

In this press conference, Obama tried to make the case that increasing our debt limit (the amount of money we can borrow) is really just paying for current spending and not a real spending increase.

This kind of flawed logic is not a surprise when it comes from someone who has never had to run a company or meet a payroll or even balance his own personal budget.  But when that same person is the President of the United States, we need to worry.

I’d like to play out Obama’s financial ‘plan’ in the world of the average American citizen.

Let’s say that for the past 10 years you’ve been living way outside your means.  You’ve taken costly vacations, bought expensive cars and your credit cards are at their credit limit.  You are now at the point where you don’t have enough money to pay your monthly bills.  You can now choose 2 courses of action.

1 – Cut your spending, sell your expensive items and adopt a simpler life so that you can pay off your debt and start over.  You must prioritize your bills to pay the higher priority ones first (mortgage, food, utilities, minimum payments on credit cards, etc.) and then dump the rest (cable, cell phones, internet, club memberships, vacations, etc.).

2 – Call your credit card companies and ask them to raise the limit on your credit cards so you can continue your lifestyle that is grossly outside of your means.

Most financially sane people would choose number 1 and even financially illiterate people who tried number 2 would be rejected by the credit card companies and then forced into option number 1.

Obama just said we need to adopt option number 2 and he is saying it in a manner that makes me believe he doesn’t understand the consequences of his actions.  He’s financially illiterate.

Obama is Despicable

During the press conference, the same guy that has been using the tragedy of the Sandy Hook school murders to push for legislation to prevent law abiding citizens from exercising their 2nd amendment rights said this (emphasis mine):

“What I will not do is to have that negotiation with a gun at the head of the American people — the threat that “unless we get our way, unless you gut Medicare or Medicaid, or otherwise slash things that the American people don’t believe should be slashed, that we’re going to threaten to wreck the entire economy.” That is not how historically this has been done. That’s not how we’re going to do it this time.”

So it’s OK for Obama to talk about guns being part of the violent crime problem (when they really aren’t) but also use those same violent metaphors to further his socialistic agenda.

Despicable.

Posted in politics | 3 Comments

Why I Support #TGDN

In case you missed it, over the weekend Todd Kincannon (@ToddKincannon) launched a follow-back hash tag #TGDN to help prevent voices from being silenced on Twitter by its auto suspension algorithms.

#TGDN stands for Twitter Gulag Defense Network and you can find out how it started and how it works by viewing the Twitchy post and @FoolishReporter wrote a great blog post describing how #TGDN can help thwart one of these Twitter algorithms.

#TGDN basically works by creating lists totaling 3,000 people and if each person follows everyone on that list then each person will have at least 3,000 Twitter followers (if you started from zero).  Having at least 3,000 twitter followers will supposedly make you immune to the Leftists tactic of blocking and reporting as spam those users who have low follower counts and causing the Twitter algorithms to automatically suspend those accounts – thus silencing their speech.  There are other ways to prevent this suspension trap like placing a period before any replies but having 3,000 followers seems to be more bullet proof.

That was a good enough reason for me to join Saturday afternoon but after I’ve had 48 hours of following back people on the lists (I’m only on list 4 and each list contains 500 people) I’ve realized there are other benefits to this program.

If we are to truly change the culture in the United States and return our government to its founding principles, we’ll need a grass roots movement to do it.  We can’t rely on the GOP to pick our candidates and run our campaigns when the Left has control of the media and in effect controls the message.  We have to think 21st century here and use modern technology to mobilize the troops and bypass the Media.

So here are my reasons for joining #TGDN and encouraging others to do the same.

Expanding the Conversation

The main reason I jumped on Twitter and started this blog was to engage more people than I could meet in my normal life and have political conversations with them.  The culture in the US will never be truly changed by just publishing white papers at think tanks (although I love reading those) because only a small minority of the population reads those.  We also can’t rely on the popular Conservative pundits on TV and the Internet because again, the Left leaning media will drown out those voices.  We need real personal conversations to change people’s hearts and minds.

Blogging and Twitter are ways to have these conversations with people who are hundreds or thousands of miles away and this increases the collective knowledge of our country and in a sense, makes every keyboard, tablet or smart phone the equivalent of a coffee shop.

Adding thousands of followers to your twitter account and adding thousands of people you follow will increase your audience that you can converse with.  In just a few days I’ve found people on twitter that I didn’t know existed and have had meaningful conversations with on all topics.  In just 48 hours I’ve grown my followers from 1,100 to over 2,500 and the people I follow has grown by the same margin.   And I’m only half way through the process!

Think about this.  Three thousand people following back with the same three thousand people has created nine million communication paths that otherwise didn’t exist!

Amplifying the Grass Roots

I’ve already noticed really great ideas/tweets from people that I would not have normally come in contact with and this is another great part of #TGDN.  People who aren’t pundits and don’t have tens of thousands of followers rarely get their great ideas retweeted due to only a few people actually seeing their tweets.

It’s understandable that popular people on twitter who have so many followers and whose job is to be on TV or write for major blogs don’t have time to follow back everyone who follows them.  I’d rather they focus on their job of getting their message out via those large megaphone sources than spend time interacting with me.  But that doesn’t mean the grass roots Conservatives don’t have a voice in the political discussions and twitter/blogs are a great way to have them.  Now that thousands on twitter have increased their audience by thousands, we now have a better chance for grass roots ideas to become know to more of the Conservative populace after #TGDN.

Uniting Conservatives

If you are like me, sometimes I feel that the Conservative message is outdated and I’m in a very small minority that still advocates it.  But after following thousands on twitter and reading their profiles/tweets, I realize that there are many like us out there.  We just need to join forces and mobilize in our community to change the culture.

No, we aren’t all robots that have the same views on all issues but that’s the whole point of having conversations to either reinforce what you believe in or change your views after new data/viewpoints are expressed.

#TGDN is a great thing and was a genius move by Kincannon and I tip my hat to him.  We still have a long way to go and really decades before we disinfect US culture of Leftist beliefs but this is a great first step!

Follow Todd and the #TGDN hash tag to find out when the next lists will be generated and let’s keep this going!

Posted in politics | 6 Comments

Obama Is A Big Spender – Part 3

To those who aren’t blind followers of the Dear Leader Obama, it is evident that the Federal spending under the current regime has far surpassed any other President in the modern era.  There are many ways to show this and I’ve done so here and here but when I was writing my last blog post I noticed another metric that also highlights the out of control spending under Team Obama.

I looked at Federal spending since 1980 and compared that with our GDP for each of those years and came up with the metric – Deficit Spending/GDP.  Normalizing our Federal Government spending to GDP seems fair because in times when the economy is booming there are more tax revenues and more need to expand infrastructure and other programs so while more actual dollars may be spent in those boom times, that necessarily doesn’t mean our Federal Government was on a spending binge.

So I took each year’s spending and divided it by GDP for that year and then averaged all the years for each President going back to Reagan (and used the year prior to Reagan as well but that isn’t representative of the entire Carter presidency).

Here is the graph and I’ll let it speak for itself.

avg deficit vs gdp

Off. The. Charts.

Posted in economics, Entitlement Programs, politics | 11 Comments

Playing In The Margins

Our esteemed representatives in Washington DC just passed another sweeping tax overhaul with the Fiscal Cliff Senate deal but as I see it, this is just another instance of our Federal Government playing in the margins and avoiding the much bigger spending issue.

There was a recent post in the Wall-Street Journal Blog that that shows a history of tax overhauls from Reagan to Obama.  You have to have a WSJ subscription to read the full story but I’ll summarize my key takeaway.

The article goes into details about the various changes to the Alternative Minimum Tax, deductions, corporate tax rates, ‘sin’ taxes (alcohol, tobacco, etc.) and adding/combining various tax brackets but there were two tax rates that all of the past 5 Presidents have changed – Top Individual Tax Rate (TITR) and Capital Gains Tax Rate on upper incomes (CGTR).

The graphs below show the changes that happened during each President from Reagan to Obama.

top tax rate

capital gains

Notice anything about these graphs?  Let me put a trend line in both of these graphs and then see what you can conclude.

top tax rate trend

capital gains trend

For the past 30+ years we’ve been moving these two tax rates above and below an average – TITR around 38% and a CGTR around 22%.  What has all the tweaking of these two tax rates meant for our Federal budget deficits?

I used this link to obtain the US government’s deficits by year and then averaged them for each President and used the metric deficit/GDP.  I’ll graph this metric versus TITR and CGTR for upper incomes to see if there is a correlation.  It should be pointed out that the budget deficits under Obama can’t be correlated to the new TITR and CGTR since these new tax rates were just passed a few days ago.

Let’s first see if there is a correlation between CGTR and deficit/GDP.

capital gains vs deficit

From this graph we see a correlation between lower CGTR and lower budget deficits – When CGTR goes down the deficit/GDP ratio also goes down!  From this data, we should be lowering the Capital Gains Tax Rate to 0%!  It makes sense that when you encourage investments in companies then more jobs are created and that creates more tax payers which will ultimately increase the tax revenue.  I’ll admit that the macroeconomic landscape is much more complex and I’d caution reading too much into the above graph, but still there seems to be a compelling argument from the data.

Now let’s look at how TITR is correlated with budget deficits.

top tax rate vs deficit

It’s hard to see a correlation here but what happens if I invert the budget deficit/GDP ratio and re-plot the graph.

top tax rate vs deficit inverted

From this graph we see a correlation between TITR and lower budget deficits – When TITR goes up the deficit/GDP goes down!  From this data, we should raise the top marginal tax rate to 100%!

Of course, the Laffer Curve tells us this is nonsense and if wealthy people are taxed at 100% then they’ll avoid paying these taxes.  I’ve also shown that relying on the ‘soaking the rich’ theory is mathematically impossible to close our budget deficit without reigning in our spending addictions.

At best I can come to a conclusion that higher TITR and CGTR could’ve moved the needle when the US ran annual budget deficits in the $100-$200 billion range but with a $1.3 trillion budget deficit under Obama, we don’t have a prayer to close this gap with just playing in the margins.

We. Must. Address. Spending.

Posted in economics, Entitlement Programs, politics | 2 Comments

We Have A Spending Problem

Well, it happened.  The House passed the Senate Fiscal Cliff ‘deal’ and now tax rates will go up on those making over $400,000 and spending cuts have been kicked down the road.

So how much tax revenue did this deal raise?

 “The Senate bill would raise roughly $600 billion in new revenues over 10 years, according to various estimates.”

That’s $60 billion per year so let’s see how that increased revenue compares to the total Federal spending and Federal budget deficit.  Using estimated 2012 Federal Government spending and deficit estimates, I created the following graphs.

fiscal cliff 1

fiscal cliff 2

You can see that this increased tax revenue is a mere drop in the bucket of our overall budget deficit (1.6% of total spending and 4.5% of our 2012 deficit).

I’ve said this before and I’ll say this again, WE HAVE A SPENDING PROBLEM, NOT A REVENUE PROBLEM!

Here is a graph of the Federal Government outlay categories as a percent of our estimated 2012 tax revenues.

tax revenue 1

In case you don’t know, the “Pensions”, “Health Care” and “Welfare” line items are comprised of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Unemployment Insurance, Welfare and Food Stamps.  Now let’s see what percentage of US tax revenues is required to fund these entitlement programs.

tax revenue 2

That’s right, 90% of all the money the US government takes in from tax revenues goes to fund these programs.

Is that any way to run a country?  90% of all tax revenues will be redistributed to those who don’t work or pay taxes?  If you were founding a new country, would this be the way you’d set it up?  Of course not!

So we either raise taxes to get another $1.3 trillion to balance the budget or cut spending.  I choose cutting spending but our Congressional leaders chose to raise taxes today.  We should be revolting in the streets right now.

Posted in economics, politics | 5 Comments

Leftists Are Awful People

Leftists are embolden and no longer scared to reveal their true feelings to the public.  While this is a tough time for Conservatives, in hindsight, I think we’ll look back on this period of history as being the time when the general public was educated about what Leftists truly believe.  And it should scare the vast majority of the human race.

I saw another example of Leftist ‘thought’ today when I saw a tweet from Soylent Green regarding this post by Matthew Bailes.

The post is entitled “Will Climate Change Ever Have Its Sandy Hook Moment?” and gist of the post goes something like this – The Neanderthals in the US have been finally shaken to their foundation regarding gun laws after seeing 20 elementary school kids killed by a an evil lunatic.  From his post (emphasis mine):

“So at this time of tragedy, when a mentally unstable, barely adult male goes into a school and kills 20 young children with a home-grown arsenal, it would be too easy to start lecturing the US about the benefits of Australia’s universal health care scheme, strict gun laws, and a conservative Prime Minister who raised taxes to buy back every assault rifle in the country after our own day of infamy, the Port Arthur massacre.”

“They don’t need it.”

“Instead they need our compassion.”

Because if the loss of 20 innocent children and six adults can’t change America’s attitude and laws relating to guns, nothing we ever say or do will.”

Before I get to what is really telling about this blog post, let me spend some time debunking Mr. Bailes’ arguments on stricter gun laws.

He mentions Chicago, which recently saw its 500th homicide in 2012, in his post so let’s get that one out of the way first.  It’s illegal to purchase a handgun in Chicago but criminals have no problem getting guns as evidenced by reports here and here.  Strict gun laws only restrict law abiding citizens from obtaining weapons to defend themselves from armed criminals.  This is basic common sense and data backs this up.

Mr. Bailes should review how England’s strict gun laws have not fared too well.  From the WSJ article (emphasis mine):

“The results have not been what proponents of the act wanted. Within a decade of the handgun ban and the confiscation of handguns from registered owners, crime with handguns had doubled according to British government crime reports. Gun crime, not a serious problem in the past, now is. Armed street gangs have some British police carrying guns for the first time. Moreover, another massacre occurred in June 2010. Derrick Bird, a taxi driver in Cumbria, shot his brother and a colleague then drove off through rural villages killing 12 people and injuring 11 more before killing himself.”

Since Mr. Bailes bragged about the Australian gun laws, you’d think he’d be familiar with crime data after Australia enacted these tougher gun laws.  Again, from the same WSJ article (emphasis mine):

“According to their study, the use of handguns rather than long guns (rifles and shotguns) went up sharply, but only one out of 117 gun homicides in the two years following the 1996 National Firearms Agreement used a registered gun. Suicides with firearms went down but suicides by other means went up. They reported “a modest reduction in the severity” of massacres (four or more indiscriminate homicides) in the five years since the government weapons buyback. These involved knives, gas and arson rather than firearms.”

“In 2008, the Australian Institute of Criminology reported a decrease of 9% in homicides and a one-third decrease in armed robbery since the 1990s, but an increase of over 40% in assaults and 20% in sexual assaults.”

“What to conclude? Strict gun laws in Great Britain and Australia haven’t made their people noticeably safer, nor have they prevented massacres. The two major countries held up as models for the U.S. don’t provide much evidence that strict gun laws will solve our problems.”

But Mr. Bailes’ lack of understanding regarding gun laws isn’t what I want to focus in this post.  The author goes on to lament that Climate Change will not have a ‘Sandy Hook moment’ where people will rise up and overwhelmingly support Climate Change legislation.  From his post (emphasis mine):

“The Sandy Hook massacre was so dreadful that it is likely to permanently change the US’s attitude to gun control that will ultimately save thousands of lives.”

Climate change is unlikely to be so lucky.”

“An individual drought, hurricane or heat wave may affect an individual’s attitude to climate change, but I wonder what climatic event it would take to have the same national impact on policy as the massacre of innocents?”

So according to Mr. Bailes, he feels it’s ‘unlucky’ that we won’t have a weather catastrophe that kills thousands of people so that the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) cult could take advantage of peoples’ emotions to push more of their lies.

Just awful people.

Here is another lovely tweet from Mr. Bailes:

bailes tweet

Just awful people.

Posted in Climate Change, politics | 2 Comments

Nothing New Under The Sun

Ecclesiastes 1:9 – What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.

We were putting the Christmas decorations back in the attic today (my wife does not play around – once Christmas is over, the house is back to normal) and I did what I do most times I go into the attic – look at old stuff that should be thrown away.

I’m a pack rat and love to reminisce and get nostalgic about stuff my wife says I should throw away and today was no different.  This time I opened a briefcase that had some things I kept from my 10 years I lived in Louisville, KY that contained KY Derby programs, concert tickets, pictures and newspapers.  It was the newspapers that caught my eye and started me to postpone the more important work my wife asked me to do.

The main Louisville paper is the Courier-Journal and I had kept a few issues on noteworthy days and I spent an hour or so today going through 2 issues – the one published after the great flood of 1997 and another that contained a letter to the editor that I wrote in 1996 (when I was a very youthful 27 years old).

What struck me about the stories in these issues of the C-J was how many of the stories are similar to ones we read in today’s papers 16 years later.  The following examples all come from these two issues of the C-J that I mentioned above.

Here is a story about the Economics and Budgetary issues facing the US in 1996:

conflicting econ headlines

Notice the conflicting headlines.  The Treasury Secretary says everything is A-OK but the GOP Representative Kasich agrees with the FED chairman that there is reason to be cautious.  It appears there may be some partisanship at play here.  So political differences aren’t something new?

budget and SS reform

Notice that the FED chairman is asking Congress to balance the Federal Budget.  What a novel idea!

Also notice that Kasich is recognizing that Social Security is a looming disaster and suggests lowering payments and tying them to the CPI to save $1 trillion over 12 years.  Notice that the current Fiscal Cliff “Negotiations” have talked about saving $1 trillion over 10 years.  Coincidence?

Here are some articles from 1997 about the devastating flood on the Ohio River.

flood water tower

flood graphic

flood western ky

Notice there is no reference to “Climate Change” in any of these stories.  Floods happened then and they happen now and they aren’t a result of increased CO2 in the atmosphere.

In 1997 mentally ill patients were not properly institutionalized and they committed mass murders with guns.

mentally ill

In 1997 the Leftists in the White House engaged in illegal activity.

wh scandal 2

We now know how Eco nut Al Gore has used his influence to increase his net worth to over $100 million by peddling the Climate Change Sham and this article was just the canary in the cave showing what this guy is capable of.

In 1997 we see the Federal Government (specifically the Housing and Urban Development (HUD) department) tried to short circuit the Free Market and create Enterprise Zones.

hud empowerment zones

This article hints at how ineffective this program was and thankfully this program was ended in 2011.

With decades of hindsight, we see how this program was not only ineffectual but highlighted the fallacy of placing our faith in our Federal Government to fix our problems.

Here is a quote from a Cato Institute study on the failures of the HUD Empowerment Zones:

“HUD’s policies played a key role in causing the housing boom and bust and then the recession in its wake. Weak lending standards on HUD-insured mortgage loans helped fuel risky non-prime lending. HUD also put pressure on banks and the failed housing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to make risky loans to underqualified borrowers. Thanks to those policies, Fannie and Freddie went bankrupt and already have received $112 billion in taxpayer bailouts.”

“HUD should be abolished. State and local governments should be left to decide what housing and community development programs they want to fund. Even better, housing should be left to private markets, which produced massive amounts of housing for people at all income levels for many decades before government encroachment.”

Is that not enough for you?  Here’s another one:

“HUD’s history of scandal and corruption fits this pattern. While government officials and advocates for housing subsidies usually paint a romanticized portrait of HUD’s programs, the truth is that federal housing intervention has often done far more damage than good. The housing and financial meltdowns of recent years can be partly traced to the distortions injected into markets by federal housing regulations and subsidies through HUD and other agencies. We have learned that when the government intervenes in the housing industry, politically driven decisions lead to corruption and economic distortion, not efficient public policies. The federal government should begin withdrawing from housing markets, including dismantling the Department of Housing and Urban Development.”

There’s even a recent study that lays blame to the housing crisis and the Great Recession on the Community Reinvestment Act.

“In the academic world, mealy-mouthed delivery of even powerful conclusions is the norm, so it’s refreshing to see authors Sumit Agarwal, Efraim Benmelech, Nittai Bergman, Amit Seru answer the title’s question, “Did the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) Lead to Risky Lending?,” with the clear, “Yes, it did. … We find that adherence to the act led to riskier lending by banks.”

“The housing meltdown and the Great Recession. Something else for which you can thank the feds.”

Yes, there is indeed nothing new under the sun.  Like today, we’ve always had political partisanship, out of control Government spending, ignorance of unsustainable entitlement programs, weather catastrophes, evil people committing mass murders, Leftist shenanigans and Federal programs that circumvent the Free Market.

When will we wise up and recognize the wisdom of the Serenity prayer?

“God grant me the serenity
to accept the things I cannot change;
courage to change the things I can;
and wisdom to know the difference.”

Posted in Climate Change, economics, Over Regulation, politics | 3 Comments

Gun Owners Treated Like Criminals

Gun owners in New York’s Westchester and Rockland counties received lumps of coal in their Christmas stockings this year.

No, Santa didn’t punish them for being on the naughty list but The Journal News (@LoHud) published names and addresses of those citizens who are licensed to own pistols and revolvers.

I won’t publish the link to the Newspaper site since they don’t deserve anymore traffic but here is the CNN story and a few quotes from it:

“(CNN) — An interactive map showing the names and addresses of all handgun permit-holders in New York’s Westchester and Rockland counties has drawn a response from mostly disgruntled readers since it was posted Saturday on a newspaper’s website.”

“The interactive map published by the Journal News, prompting more than 1,300 comments as of Tuesday, allows readers to zoom in on red dots that indicate which residents are licensed to own pistols or revolvers.”

I don’t even know where to start.

The names and addresses of sex offenders are routinely published but that is in the interest of public safety since these individuals have been CONVICTED of crimes that make them a threat.  I have no problem with this or publishing names and addresses of public figures that are ‘in the news’ since these individuals signed up for this scrutiny by the nature of their chosen profession.  But the publishing of names and addresses of private citizens (without their permission I might add) who have not committed any crime is unconscionable.

Why was this done?

In an attempt to answer this question, I sent an email to The Journal News editor, CynDee Royle and here is a copy of this email with my email address redacted (As I’ll show below, Ms. Croyle’s email address is publicly available so I didn’t redact it):

From:

Royle, Cyndee (CROYLE@lohud.com)

Sent:

Mon 12/24/12 3:36 PM

To:

Cosmoscon (xxxxx@hotmail.com)

This is public information, readily available to anyone who has a computer or access to one.

Sent from my iPhone

On Dec 24, 2012, at 3:10 PM, Cosmoscon <xxxxx@hotmail.com>> wrote:

Who gave permission to print this?

You should be fired.  Will you print the addresses to all the staff at LoHud?

I replied with this follow-up question:

“There is a lot of information available with a little searching (such as my home address) but why does a newspaper choose to publish information on people that aren’t “in the news” (i.e. they have not broken any laws, not famous, etc.).  What criteria do you use when contemplating publication of law abiding citizens’ home addresses?”

To my great surprise, I received no reply.

Knowing how Leftists think, I can only assume that the Journal News did this to give the public information about those who own pistols and revolvers so people can avoid danger.  Of course this is nonsense and the only outcome of this release of information is to give criminals information where they can obtain firearms through theft or, worse, target houses that DON’T have firearms.

So why does The Journal News stop here?  Will they publish the names and addresses of people who own large pickup trucks?  Traffic fatalities in New York occur at a rate of 6.3 per 100,000, deaths from firearms occur at a rate of 5.1 per 100,000 and from this study, large pickup trucks provide a higher risk of fatality to other drivers.  Will The Journal News publish names and addresses of people who drive large pickup trucks?  See the graph below:

pickup trucksIf the Journal News was trying to raise awareness of a major threat in the US then murders from guns shouldn’t be at the top of their list.  From the latest Center for Disease Control (CDC) estimated cause of death data for 2010, Murders have dropped from the top 15 for the first time since 1965.   Diabetes and Heart Disease are listed in the top 10 so will the Journal News publish names and addresses of fast food restaurant owners?

If The Journal News is making a habit of publishing data that is “readily available to anyone who has a computer or access to one” then we can expect them to publish names and addresses of people who own a home worth, say, a million dollars or more.  That data is also readily available from country tax records so what is preventing them from publishing this data as well?

What criteria does The Journal News use when they are deciding whether or not to publish names and addresses of private citizens?  The citizens of Westchester and Rockland counties deserve to know this.

It appears that the Journal News is just another typical Leftist organization hell bent on demonizing the tens of millions of law abiding gun owners in the US because of the few evil people who make the news when they use an illegally obtained firearms to murder innocent people.  Call me crazy but I think the resources at The Journal News would be better served in trying to identify the criminals that have illegal firearms instead of attempting to vilify law abiding gun owners.

If The Journal News is comfortable publishing names and addresses that are “readily available to anyone who has a computer or access to one” then I’d like to follow their lead.

Here is the LinkedIn site for CynDee Royle:

linkedin

Ms. Royle’s twitter account is @Croyle1 and her account is protected (you can’t see her tweets) but you can still tweet to her.

Here are the names, phone numbers and email addresses of the staff of The Journal News.

Tell them how you feel about this!

Posted in politics | 8 Comments

Theotokos

Over the past few weeks we’ve heard lots of people pontificate on what the true meaning of Christmas is, but sadly most got it wrong.

It’s not about peace, giving, family, gifts, snow or helping out those less fortunate.  Don’t get me wrong, those are all wonderful endeavors that should be practiced not only during Christmas but during the entire year.

But the real meaning of Christmas is about our Creator sending us help when we didn’t deserve it.  We chose a sinful nature and because of this, God recognized that we were hopelessly lost without a Savior so He sent His Son, Jesus, to be born of a virgin.  Jesus lived among us, healed the sick, taught His disciples and then willingly gave Himself up to die on the cross for our sins.  Jesus sealed the deal by coming back to life 3 days later and ascended into Heaven where He waits to come again to Earth for the final time and bring His Bride (the Church) into Heaven.  If anyone recognizes their sinful nature, acknowledges the birth, death and resurrection of Christ as full payment for their sins then they are a member of the Church and will receive everlasting life in Heaven.

For this reason, Mary will forever have the title of Theotokos, or God Bearer.

There could be but one person to carry Jesus in her womb but that doesn’t mean we can’t also be a Theotokos.  We must all answer the call of God to bring the Gospel to those who are lost and in that regard; we can all be a Theotokos.

Make a commitment to be the Theotokos in your part of the world and spread the Good News to those who need it.  If there was ever a time our world needed to hear a message of hope and salvation, it is now.

There is a nice video below that reinforces the true meaning of Christmas – God sent His Son to save us.  It’s the best story ever told and it’s the reason that the word “Gospel” means “Good News.”

Watch this video below and pay attention to the part about the “pauses.”  These simple 8 notes played in quick succession are meaningless but once the pauses are added the melody takes on a whole new meaning.  Take time in your life to add “pauses” and you’ll notice life takes on a whole new meaning.

Merry Christmas to all!

Posted in christianity | 1 Comment

Jupiter Viewing Session

I took advantage of the clear night skies tonight to set up my telescope and let my kids get some good looks at Jupiter and the Moon.

Here are some pictures I took of my two kids peering through my telescope.

son

daughter

I mainly use my telescope for deep sky viewing of galaxies, star clusters and nebulae so I have a telescope suited for that purpose.  It’s a Zhummel 10” Newtonian reflector (1,250mm focal length) on a manual Dobsonian mount and while this is perfect for my purposes, it is not the best setup for photographs.  The telescope mount is manual so it can’t track the objects as the Earth rotates and therefore I can’t setup a fancy camera to take long exposures that can be enhanced on computer software.  I have to hold the camera with a steady hand and use the lens of the camera to find the image through the eyepiece of the telescope and it’s a lot of trial and error.  It doesn’t help that I know next to nothing about photography so it’s really luck when I get an image that looks good.  For the record, I snapped the photos tonight using my iPhone 5 using caffeine free hands.

I used two eyepieces tonight –  1) the 2” 27mm Tele Vue Panoptic for views of the moon and 2) the 1.25” 11mm Tele Vue Naglar for view of Jupiter.  I also used a ‘moon filter’ on both eyepieces to attenuate some of the light and a sky glow filter on the 11mm Naglar (which will be explained later).  Jupiter is massive and the Moon tonight was waxing gibbous so the reflected light off these bodies is very bright in a telescope and without these filters both objects would look like spotlights in the eyepiece.  Looking at the moon at any phase greater than a crescent in a telescope without one of these filters is almost blinding and I don’t suggest doing it for longer than a second.

Now that I got the disclaimers out of the way, here are some pictures I took this evening.

Since the Moon was high in the sky, this was the first object I had my kids look at.  Most people think that the best time to look at the Moon with binoculars or a telescope is when the moon is full but I disagree.  The best views of the moon are when the terminator line is present and you can see the shadows cast on the moon’s surface from the crater walls.  The following picture gives a good representation of what we saw tonight.

moon

The views of the moon were all well and good but tonight I really wanted my kids to see Jupiter with its 4 moons and the picture below shows what they saw.

jupiter1

What you can’t see from the picture is the detail that we saw on Jupiter with our eyes.  Because the sensitive iPhone camera was overwhelmed with the photons from Jupiter, you can’t see the North and South equatorial cloud bands.  Through the eyepiece we were able to clearly see that the Northern band was actually split into two parallel cloud bands and my kids were amazed that they were able to see clouds on Jupiter from their front yard!

The Moons in the above picture are (from bottom to top) Ganymede, Io, Europa and Callisto.  How do I know the positions of the moons of Jupiter at any given time?  No, I’m not a genius.  I use the Sky and Telescope website to tell me!

jupiters moons

Because I live in the suburbs of a moderately large city, I sometimes use a sky glow filter that passes light wavelengths associated with nebulae and filters out the light wavelengths associated with street lights.  This filter is mainly used to improve the visibility of deep sky images in light polluted areas (like mine) but it also has an attenuating effect on bright objects, like planets, and here is a picture I took of Jupiter using the Lumicon deep sky filter.

jupiter2 filter

Now here is the really cool part about tonight’s viewing of Jupiter.  If you zoom in on both of the photos of Jupiter above you’ll see thousands of other points of light that we didn’t see with our eyes when we peered into the telescope.  The picture below is a zoomed-in image of the star field between Ganymede and Io.

faint stars

Those points of light are not anomalies of the photograph but actual stars in our Milky Way galaxy!  Those stars are too faint for our eyes to capture but the sensitive photon detector of the iPhone 5 (or any modern camera) can pick up these photons and record them!

I know these points of light are stars and not ‘noise’ from the camera because I took many photographs tonight and noticed the same pattern of stars in all the pictures.  It’s true that our sky is full of stars!

I highly encourage you to go outside during this Christmas holiday season and experience the wonders of the night sky.  I have put together a Jupiter viewing guide to help those who have a desire to see the largest planet in our solar system.  Go outside and look up!

Posted in astronomy | 2 Comments

Global Temperature and CO2 Update – December 2012

The Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) cult is frustrated that they haven’t been able to convince enough people in the United States to believe their thesis lie that humans (with their lust for fossil fuels) are altering Earth’s climate and that if we don’t stop we’ll die from either rising oceans, drought, heat, snowstorms, hurricanes, earthquakes or ocean acidification.  They’ve tried Global Cooling, Global Warming and Climate Change but no matter how much feces they throw on the wall, nothing seems to stick.

The latest gathering of AGW cult members (called COP18) was an even bigger disgrace than the last one.  Not only did they leave Doha with zero binding agreements, a portion of the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report (AR5) was leaked and it showed the AGW computer models were even more flawed than anyone expected.

This latest AGW failure gave me an opportunity to update my charts showing global temperatures as they relate to global atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Here is the graph of atmospheric CO2 measurements as gathered by the Mauna Loa observatory and you can see that the CO2 levels are continuing to increase.

CO2

Here are the plots of global temperature averages compiled by the Climate Research Unit and the University of Alabama Huntsville.

cru1

uah1

Let’s now look at these same temperature graphs but starting with 1998 and you can easily see that we are still in a period of flat temperature growth (I’ve added trend lines with the equation for extra emphasis).

cru2

uah2

Furthermore, if increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 cause increased global temperatures then we should see a linearly increasing line when we plot global temperature anomaly (delta from a baseline period) on the Y-axis and atmospheric CO2 concentration on the X-axis. From the graph below, you can see that something happened when CO2 concentrations increased to around the 370 ppm point to stop that upward trend and this inflection point raises questions.  Is some other variable(s) counter acting any warming caused by CO2?  Has the warming effect of CO2 reached a limit?

co2 vs temp

As with my previous updates, I’ll leave you with this.  You can choose to believe the emotionally charge rhetoric of the AGW cult or you can choose to believe the data.  Let’s hope the American people and those we elect continue to side with the data.

Addendum – I have many posts on Climate Change that can be found here and if you are interested in a deeper dive of the science then I suggest two posts here and here.

Posted in Climate Change | 10 Comments

The Buck Stops Where?

obama-biden-facepalm

Remember when Obama said this about leaders taking responsibility for the actions of their employees (emphasis mine)?

“Well, here’s what I know, we were just talking about responsibility and as president of the United States, it’s pretty clear to me that I’m responsible for folks who are working in the federal government and you know, Harry Truman said the buck stops with you.”

So who will take responsibility for this (emphasis mine)?

“An independent inquiry into the attack on the United States diplomatic mission in Libya that killed four Americans on Sept. 11 sharply criticized the State Department for a lack of seasoned security personnel and for relying on untested local militias to safeguard the compound, according to the panel’s report made public on Tuesday night.”

“The panel also blamed the government for over-relying on specific warnings of imminent attacks or other threats to take action rather than adapting security procedures and protocols to a deteriorating security environment. By this spring, Benghazi, a hotbed of militant activity in eastern Libya, had experienced a string of assassinations, an attack on a British envoy’s motorcade and the explosion of a bomb outside the American mission.”

“Finally, the report also blamed two major State Department bureaus — Diplomatic Security and Near Eastern Affairs — for failing to coordinate and plan adequate security at the mission. The panel also determined that a number of officials had shown poor leadership.”

Systemic failures and leadership and management deficiencies at senior levels within two bureaus,” the report said, “resulted in special mission security posture that was inadequate for Benghazi and grossly inadequate to deal with the attack that took place.”

Did our Government move military support into the area to protect the US citizens who were working in this volatile region? No.

“On the night of the attack, the Pentagon was able to divert an unarmed Predator drone operating 90 miles away to Benghazi, and the C.I.A. later used it to help plan an escape route for the surviving Americans. But other military forces were too far away or could not be mobilized in time.”

“The closest AC-130 gunship, a devastating and accurate weapon against insurgents in urban areas, was in Afghanistan. There are no armed drones within range of Libya. There was no Marine expeditionary unit — a large seaborne force with its own helicopters — in the Mediterranean Sea.”

Notice how the inquiry panel report didn’t mention anything about a YouTube video inciting a riot at the embassy?

It’ll be interesting to see how the Main Stream Media provides cover for Obama on this one.  Expect them to invoke the Ezra Klein Rule early and often.  “Rules for Thee and not for Me!

Posted in politics | 4 Comments

Liberal Bloggers Know How To Run A Company

If you are like me, a person who actually works in the real world of business, you know that there is a great deal of uncertainty right now.  How will Obamacare affect my business?  Are we poised for another recession?  Will the jump off the Fiscal Cliff put us in a Depression?  Will over regulation continue to stifle the Free Market?

All this uncertainty is forcing businesses to halt expansion and keep money on the sidelines.  This isn’t something that business wants to do because the number one goal of ANY business is to make a profit and if they can invest their capital in areas that can capture market share or innovate to find the next best widget, companies want to spend their money to do this.  But right now there is just too much uncertainty to take that risk when peoples’ jobs and livelihoods are at stake.

This is pretty obvious to most people in business but to Liberal bloggers, this is just nonsense.  From an Ezra Klein tweet:

ezraklein

From the Slate blog of Matt Yglesias that was referenced in the Ezra Klein tweet (emphasis mine):

“That’s why a real strategy for bringing corporate cash off the sidelines doesn’t have anything to do with tax reform (though tax reform might be nice), it has to do with monetary policy. Specifically an NGDP targeting strategy or an “Evans Rule” strategy would work on both of these dimensions. That’s because both the Evans Rule or a reasonable NGDP target amount to a promise that either real growth will be faster-than-expected or else inflation will be faster-than-expected or else both. That doesn’t give you “certainty” about the future, but it gives you a rational basis for shifting assets at the margin out of low-yield high-liquidity strategies and into more aggressive ones. That more aggressive business investment posture should, in turn, produce both more real output and somewhat higher prices thus creating a credible virtuous circle.”

“Frustratingly, if you talk to the smart analytic economists and the investment banks this is exactly what they’ll tell you we should do. But instead of talking to them, the media prefers to lavish attention on CEOs who just want what all rich guys want—lower taxes and less social-welfare spending.”

To sum up Matt Yglesias’ thesis – The FED can modify monetary policy in such a way to persuade businesses to free up some of the cash that is sitting on the sidelines.

Mr. Yglesias proposes that the FED do this by using NGDP targeting and/or the Evans Rule.  NGDP targeting means that the FED will do whatever necessary (which would include injecting so much cash into the market that we’d have higher inflation rates) to keep GDP growth at some nominal level (say 5%).  The Evans Rule, which the FED recently adopted, states that the FED will put measurable limits on its monetary policy (i.e. not raise interest rates until the US drops below a certain level of Unemployment Rate and have inflation rise to a certain point).

All that sounds good in theory but if the Market uncertainties still remain due to actions of the Federal Government, companies will still keep the money on the sidelines.  Interest rates are basically zero right now anyway and companies are still reluctant to expand and invest in new markets so I don’t think higher inflation rates would cause businesses to invest in capital when we still have this very real Market uncertainty.  In a climate where the Federal Government allowed the Free Market to rule unfettered, then I could see this theory having merits but we can hardly characterize our current Regime as pro Free Market.

I basically asked Mr. Yglesias this question in a tweet that he did respond to (sort of):

matt

From what I can tell, Mr. Yglesias received a philosophy degree from Harvard and has spent his entire professional career blogging or writing for various websites (i.e. Think Progress and Slate).  Apparently this education and experience gives him the authority to tell the media that CEO’s are clueless with regard to running companies and are only interested in lower income tax rates.   Because, after all, CEO’s are only people who spend their days RUNNING ACTUAL COMPANIES, meeting a payroll, analyzing Market conditions, leading organizations and being held responsible for the thousands of people that are employed at their companies.

But what do they know?  Everyone knows that philosophy degrees and blogging expertise trumps all that.  Right?

If Mr. Yglesias and other Leftist academia elites think that companies are intentionally ignoring Market opportunities then they should strike out on their own, start companies and take advantage of these unmet needs.  I’ll be waiting.

Posted in economics, Over Regulation, politics | 6 Comments

In The End, We Win

Image

What kind of monster goes into an elementary school and kills 20 kids?

What kind of God allows this to happen?

Where is the justice for this crime?

On Friday 14-DEC-12, In Newtown, Connecticut:

  • There were 20 homes that had the worst phone call they’ll ever receive.
  • There are 20 parents that must now prepare funeral arrangements instead of planning Christmas parties.
  • There are 20 parents staring at Christmas presents that will go unopened in 10 days.
  • There are 20 parents that are questioning their faith.
  • There are 20 parents who will be avoiding the rooms that were once occupied by their children.

I cannot fathom the depth of their despair these parents are feeling during this holiday season and truth be told, I get scared when I try to imagine it.

I prayed more today than I have done in a while.  I prayed for the Newtown, Connecticut community, the parents who lost their children and the police officers that had to enter that school and see the dead children on the floor.

But once that was over, I selfishly prayed for myself.  I was in a very bad place Friday and needed some wisdom and although I didn’t deserve it, my selfish prayer was answered late in the evening.

Long before the terrible events of that day became known, my wife and I had planned to have a special day for our two kids on Friday the 14th. We had them invite their best friends to come to our house after school, they spent the afternoon playing, we had dinner and then we all piled in the SUV to go look at Christmas lights.  The kids had popcorn and hot chocolate and we played the movie The Polar Express in the DVD system while we drove around.

The kids, oblivious to the tragedy that had happened earlier in the day, were overcome by the magic of Christmas and spent the whole night oooing and awwwing at the Christmas lights and giggling at jokes they made with their friends.

My wife and I, fully aware of the events of the day, had many quiet moments where we looked at each other, smiled and had that unspoken communication that spouses have that let the other one know how happy they were in the moment.

As luck, or fate, would have it, the movie came to its conclusion just as we were pulling into our neighborhood and the scene playing at the time was when the conductor was dropping off the boy (who had doubts about Santa) to his home and he offered the boy the following parting wisdom:

“The thing about trains… it doesn’t matter where they’re going. What matters is deciding to get on.”

And then it hit me.  Outside of the obvious horror of the day’s events, what really troubled me, personally, was that we were powerless to control the events in that Connecticut town.  We could postulate for days about stricter gun laws, tighter security at schools, more attention to those with mental illnesses, etc. but all of that may or may not have prevented this atrocity.  The fact remains that evil people exist and if they are determined enough, they will be successful in carrying out their evil acts.

For me, it takes events like today to make me realize that we really aren’t in control of a majority of the events in our lives.

And that is what really frustrates people.  We can accept tragedy that is of our own doing.  We can ask for forgiveness, learn from our mistakes and do what we can to make sure it doesn’t happen again.  In our jobs, if there is a known issue that needs fixing then we can rally the troops and move forward.  But we really get frustrated at work when our business issues are not of our making but instead are the result of outside forces that we can’t control.  That is when desperation creeps into our work and eventually our personal lives.

As we were pulling into our neighborhood and I heard that famous quote from the movie, God spoke to me and I was reminded that God never promised us a life that was carefully planned out according to our desires or a life that was fully under our control.  All God asks us to do is ‘get on’ and place our faith in Him.

God doesn’t promise us that evil will be powerless over us during the journey of life but He does promise us that in the end, Good defeats evil forever.

During our lives, we will be tossed around by the evil in the world that is beyond our control but God offers us this reassuring promise – In the end, Good wins!

Rev 20:10

And the devil, who deceived them, was thrown into the lake of burning sulfur, where the beast and the false prophet had been thrown.  They will be tormented day and night forever and ever.

1 Cor 15:51-56

Listen, I tell you a mystery: We will not all sleep, but we will all be changed – in a flash, in the twinkling of an eye, at the last trumpet.  For the trumpet will sound, the dead will be raised imperishable, and we will be changed.  For the perishable must clothe itself with the imperishable, and the mortal with immortality, then the saying that is written will come true: “Death has been swallowed up in victory.”  “Where, O death, is your victory?  Where, O death, is your sting?” The sting of death is sin, and the power of sin is the law.  But thanks be to God! He gives us the victory through our Lord Jesus Christ.

Rev 21:1:-4

Then I saw a new heaven and a new earth, for the first heaven and the first earth had passed away and there was no longer any sea.  I saw the Holy City, the new Jerusalem, coming down out of heaven from God, prepared as a bride beautifully dressed for her husband.  And I heard a loud voice from the throne saying, “Now the dwelling of God is with men, and he will live with them.  They will be his people, and God himself will be with them and be their God.  He will wipe every tear from their eyes.  There will be no more death or mourning or crying or pain, for the old order of things has passed away.”

Posted in christianity | 5 Comments

New Leftist Rule

In case you missed it, there is a new Leftist rule that Conservatives should understand and invoke at appropriate times.

New Leftist Rule – You are NOT accountable for the actions of a company, network or other entity unless you are an official full time employee.

New Leftist Corollary – If you are just a ‘contributor’ to a company, network or other entity then you have ZERO accountability for the actions of that particular company, network or other entity.

And this new law has been validated by suuuuuuper genius Ezra Klein.

ezraklein contributor

Ezra Klein has been blogging and tweeting links over the past few days telling us how unions are great and Right-To-Work Legislation is bad (here, here, here and here) and when he’s asked if one of the businesses that contributes to his income has union workers, he replies that he has no idea because, after all, he’s just a ‘contributor’ or something.

So the next time a Leftist takes a jab at a Fox News ‘contributor’ over something Fox News or their parent News Corporation does, refer them to the Ezra Klein Rule.

Posted in politics | 5 Comments