A Stimulus Plan That Is Too Good To Be True

I think of the weirdest things when I am running.  This just came to me and I’m surely missing something so please read through this and tell me why this won’t work.

Problem Statement

Companies legally avoid paying corporate taxes many ways but one of the more popular methods is moving manufacturing outside the US.

Granted there are other reasons why companies move manufacturing to a foreign country and many of these reasons make sound business sense and are just a nature of the Global Free Market.  My proposal below will not move all manufacturing locations back to the US and I believe that forcing companies to go against Market forces is bad so I’m not advocating that.  Market forces are not involved when a corporation has no option but to flee the US because of a Federal tax code that is anti-business and I’m proposing that we can stop this flight of manufacturing jobs from the US.

My Proposal

I think I have a way to remove the ‘stick’ the IRS uses to force corporations out of the US and replace it with a ‘carrot’ that will entice businesses to move manufacturing back to the US and level the playing field when it comes to corporate tax rates with other countries.

My proposal will move some of these jobs back to the US, stimulate the economy, lower corporate tax rates and increase Federal tax revenue.

Sound too good to be true?  Well, it does to me too but for the life of me I can’t think of a reason this won’t work.

Without further delay, here is my proposal:

Congress shall pass a law stating – A corporation will pay a 0% Federal tax rate on profits from products and/or services that are manufactured and/or generated in a US facility that is constructed or commissioned in 2014 and beyond.

There it is.  If you start up a new operation in the US anytime in 2014 and beyond then you’ll pay NO Federal taxes on profit from that location….forever.

To me, this plan has zero risk as far as the Federal Government is concerned.  Right now corporations are avoiding tax payments by having operations outside the US so having these companies move these operations back to the US and still pay no taxes on their profits from these facilities doesn’t reduce the amount of tax revenue Uncle Sam currently receives.

But in reality this proposal will INCREASE Federal tax revenue because these new US facilities will hire people who will earn a paycheck and pay taxes to the Federal Government (taxes they are not currently collecting).  Not to mention the fact that our budget deficit will shrink due to a reduction in outlays from Welfare and other entitlements as the unemployed or under employed grab some of these full time jobs.

And don’t forget the ripple effect of more people in the workforce buying things in the Market which will increase other revenues for other industries (which will increase the tax revenues these other industries pay).  Now this is what I call a real stimulus that doesn’t require shovel readiness.

This proposal can also help reduce healthcare costs since more people having full time jobs and participating in employer sponsored health care plans will allow for more preventative care and fewer emergency room visits and high cost, catastrophic medical procedures.

This proposal also appears to have enough red meat in it for both sides of the aisle and therefore can be pitched as a win-win for both the Left and the Right.

Conservatives will like this proposal because it is pro-business and reduces corporate tax rates.

Liberals will like this proposal because Federal tax revenue will increase.

Both sides should be in favor of decreasing the unemployment rate, removing the number of people on welfare and stimulating the economy.  That’s a nice message for Congressional representatives to take back to their districts!

But Seriously, this sounds too good to be true.  Why hasn’t Congress already passed a law like this?  What am I missing?  Please show me why this can’t work.

Addendum – For further reading on the subject, here is a link to a report from Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey outlining the damage done to US businesses due to our high corporate tax rate.

Posted in economics, politics | 8 Comments

Merry Christmas 2013

If I was the Creator of the Universe and I wanted to offer Salvation to the humans on planet Earth, I would not have done it the way God chose.

Think about it:

The Son of God was born to an unwed teenage mother in a stinky, unsanitary manger (most likely a cave).

He grew up in a poor household, became a carpenter and spent his spare time fishing.

He was followed by a small band of guys who weren’t in any danger of being listed on any Who’s Who lists and they were considered the lower end of society.

He spent just 3 years of His adult life walking and talking to whoever would give Him an audience and most of the time He spoke to poor, common folk and sometimes even prostitutes and tax collectors.

He was ridiculed and mocked by the religious and political elite.

Although He committed no crime, He was sentenced to die on a cross in one of the most painful and humiliating ways to die humans have ever devised.

The 11 guys who were entrusted to carry on His message were so afraid of meeting the same fate that they hid out after His death and one of them even denied even knowing him.

But yet here I sit, over 2,000 years later, in my office where there is a bookshelf that contains a dozen or so copies of a book that chronicles the teachings of Jesus.  How can this be?  How can we still be talking about Jesus when he led such an ordinary life and those entrusted to spread the Gospel were uneducated and scared of sharing this message?

Because God had a different plan!

God chose to use the imperfect, dregs of society to change the world and that means he can use you too.  Are you upset with the hand life has dealt you?  Tell it to Peter who was crucified upside down.  Tell it to the countless number of Christians who have paid the ultimate price for practicing their Faith.  Did you think this Christian life was supposed to be easy?

If there’s one thing you can take away from the less than ordinary birth of Christ, it’s that Christians weren’t meant to lead a pampered life full of unicorns and rainbows.  Christians follow Christ’s lead and live in the real world.  The Christian life is messy.  It’s uncomfortable.  It’s controversial.  It’s radical.  It’s divisive.  It’s emotional.  It’s disappointing.  It’s unfair.  It’s hard.

But like those 11 men who were literally scared to death after Jesus’ death, Christians were created to change the world.  Are you ready?

Posted in christianity | 5 Comments

What The Chevy Volt and Obamacare Teach Us

Some people are pointing to the recent failures of Obamacare as proof that disaster ensues when the Federal Government gets involved in the private industry and tries to counteract Free Market forces.  You get no argument from me on that but we didn’t need to wait for the predicted Obamacare failures to arrive at that conclusion.  Remember the Chevy Volt?

Let’s compare the sales of the Government Motors Chevy Volt to the Nissan Leaf – two very similar Electric Vehicles (EV’s) that were both introduced at same time (December 2010).

You can see that while the sales numbers of the Volt beat the Leaf in 2012, the Leaf has now caught up with the Chevy Volt in 2013.

volt vs leaf

But in reality, the Volt is doing much worse than the graph above shows.  When you compare the Volt and Leaf sales to the overall trend of all US auto sales, the Leaf is clearly outperforming the Volt.  The Leaf sales are comparable to the overall US automobile sales but the Volt sales are lagging way behind the industry trend.  The two graphs below show Leaf and Volt sales on the left y-axis and all US auto sales on the right y-axis.

leaf vs usvolt vs usWhy did the Leaf outperform the Volt in 2013?

Maybe it’s because the Leaf is $5,385 cheaper ($26,685 for the Volt vs. $21,300 for the Leaf).  It should be noted that these MSRP’s have been reduced to take into account that both qualify for a ridiculous Federal tax credit of $7,500.

Maybe people avoid the Volt because it was a byproduct of huge government subsidies that amounted to $5 billion. After the GM bailout I vowed to never buy another GM product again and I’m sure I’m not alone with that decision so I can see how the Volt sales will suffer from this stigma.

Maybe it’s because the Volt has shown a tendency to catch fire during a crash.

It’s probably a combination of all the above but I think the main reason for the Volt underperformance is the fact that the Federal Government intervened and rescued a company that should’ve gone through bankruptcy and fixed its problems.  What happens when the Federal Government tries to counteract Free Market forces?  You get a product that is over-priced and doesn’t meet the needs of the consumer.  A Reuter’s article captured it best here.

“GM’s basic problem is that “the Volt is over-engineered and over-priced,” said Dennis Virag, president of the Michigan-based Automotive Consulting Group.”

“Over Engineered and over-priced” – Sounds a lot like Obamacare doesn’t it?

And full disclosure here, I’d love to buy an EV.  An EV is ideal for my long daily commute but right now the Volt is just not financially justifiable for me but I’ll wait for the private automobile companies (that didn’t rely on Federal Government subsidies to compensate for their inefficiencies) to innovate and eventually arrive at a final product that the Free Market always provides – an affordable product in plentiful supply that meets the needs of the consumer.

I’ll close with the following video from Ben Howe.

Posted in economics, politics | 3 Comments

This Is Newsworthy To NPR

npr-logo

It’s either a slow news day or NPR is trying to push the Elizabeth Warren ‘class warfare, wealth redistribution, Income Inequality’ talking points.

NPR just ran an honest to goodness story (it’s on their website and everything) that is about a part time contract security guard at Google earning less money than the full time Google employees inside the building.  I’m not joking.  That is the entire take-away of the story and I think NPR believes this revelation will make people angry or something.

Here are some parts from the article that really tug at the ole heart strings:

Take Manny Cardenas, a security guard at Google who lives in low-income housing in San Jose and commutes regularly to Google’s sprawling corporate campus in Mountain View. Cardenas, a stocky, soft-spoken 25-year-old, has been working as a part-time security guard at the search giant for the past year and a half.

Cardenas says his job is to “make sure none of the people were parking in Google’s parking place.” He says he usually stands in the lot for eight hours and gets a lunch break. That gives him a chance to dive into Google’s famous free gourmet food buffet; he would like to bring a few snacks home for his 5-year-old daughter, but as a contract worker, he can’t.

“I see people taking to-go boxes,” he says. “They give you to-go boxes if you ask for them, but we weren’t allowed to do that.”

Sometimes, Cardenas says, he doesn’t make enough money to feed himself and his daughter, which feels strange, working at a place like Google.

“Like, I was thinking, ‘Wow! If I was just one of them, I wouldn’t need to do any of that.’ They get to eat whatever they want, however they want.”

He stands in a parking lot for 8 hours, tells people where to park, earns $16/hr and even gets a free lunch inside Google’s gourmet buffet.  Off the top of my head I can think of about 20 other jobs that are way worse but the NPR story is presented in a manner that leads you to believe he is a 2nd class citizen who is being denied some God given right.

Did you catch all the class warfare terminology in this article?  “If I was just one of them”, “We weren’t allowed to do that” and “as a contract worker, he can’t.”  These phrases are supposed to give the impression that there is a caste system preventing Mr. Cardenas from moving up. 

This next sentence was just too much:

NPR reached out to Google, Apple and Twitter about pay for their security guards, and none responded.

“None responded.”  Well no kidding!  They probably thought it was a prank phone call.  What’s next?  Will NPR call the city of Santa Clara, CA and ask why the city garbage collectors earn less than the City Engineers?  Who told NPR to ponder such mysteries of the universe? 

I am glad to report that the story has a happy ending for Mr. Cardenas:

He finished college this semester, and on Monday he’s starting a new full-time job at a nonprofit.

Wait, you mean if someone works for and obtains a higher level of education then they can have a better job with benefits and higher income?  For those keeping score, that is TWO bombshells that NPR dropped in this one article!  I hope NPR devotes more time to this 2nd revelation that more education equates to higher earnings and better benefits.  Who knew?   

 

AddendumI’d like to make the following disclaimer – I have no issues with Mr. Cardenas and based purely on the info in the NPR article I’d say he’s a pretty good guy.  I commend him for working hard, striving to move up the economic ladder, going to college and supporting his daughter.  I wish him well in his new profession.  My gripe is purely with the obvious bias of NPR and their desire to push a dangerous meme.  And it’s obvious the State Run Media has been successful at pushing this class warfare meme because many of the statements made in the article came directly from Mr. Cardenas. 

Posted in Income Inequality, npr, politics | 2 Comments

The AGW Cult Is In Denial

There is snow in Egypt for the first time in over 100 years but yet the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) cult is still clinging like Pharisees to their shifting holy scriptures.

https://twitter.com/Cheesehead_80/status/412415931609280512

Yes, AGW climate scientists have always predicted that increased atmospheric CO2 would lead to increased snow fall.  Oh wait!

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

I asked one of the more vocal AGW attack dogs from Skeptical Science, @Dana1981, to weigh in on this unprecedented event.

His response was a predictable straw man argument and he avoided the facts.

I challenge any AGW cult member to point me to a peer reviewed journal paper that predicted increased atmospheric CO2 would cause the Middle East to have snow accumulation.

Posted in Climate Change | 9 Comments

Understatement of the Year

I received a letter from Honda stating that my 2003 Odyssey needs to have its SRS electronic control unit repaired because there is a possibility that the air bag will deploy in a non-crash scenario.  A portion of the letter is shown below and the highlighted sentence is what I’d call a gross understatement!

honda

“An airbag that inadvertently deploys while the vehicle is in motion may distract the driver, increasing the risk of a crash.”

Yea, it would be a little distracting if my airbag deploys while I’m driving 65 mph on the interstate.

I’ll be taking my van into the Honda dealer soon!

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Hope Is Not A Strategy

I have not seen this officially communicated anywhere but it appears to me the GOP heads of state have devised the following strategy for 2014 – Let’s move to the middle and make small compromises with the Left on all issues so we can avoid being labeled obstructionists and then we can focus on Obamacare in hopes of taking back the Senate and increasing our control of the House.

There is really no other conclusion to draw based on the fact that:

1)      The House passed the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2013 that sets our discretionary spending at $1 trillion and rolls back $62 billion of the sequester spending cuts over the next 2 years and

2)      House Speaker John Boehner publically lambasted the Tea Party members of the House.

No doubt the failures of Obamacare will increase in 2014 but here is my question.  Is it wise for the GOP to throw its Conservative base under the bus in the hope that the Left will be so damaged by the Obamacare failures that Republicans will retake the Senate and increase their control of the house?

I’ll get to my thoughts on that question later but first let me give you my viewpoints on this latest budget deal.  My reservations with this bill are summed up nicely by two quotes from the WSJ article:

“It seems to me that once you embrace spending at these target levels, which are higher than the Budget Control Act, you’ve got yourself in a position where you’ve got to raise the debt ceiling,” said Sen. Mike Johanns (R., Neb.), who had not yet decided whether to support the budget deal.”

“Sen. Pat Toomey (R., Pa.) said he still hoped Republicans would use the debt debate as another occasion to pursue deficit reduction—but conceded that the current bill illustrates Congress’ limited appetite for tough compromises and confrontation.”

The spending increases in the latest budget bill are indeed minimal when you consider a Federal government that spends over $3 trillion and has a debt of over $17 trillion but it’s the principle of the matter for me.  Increasing our spending (which also means raising the debt limit this spring) at this time, even a little, is not responsible leadership when we are traveling in the fast lane toward a collapse.

Yes, the current political climate in DC is not conducive to such a grand bargain that would reduce our deficit.  I understand that.  But at what point do we come to the realization that the US is at the brink and we can’t wait for a few more years to get the right people in office so that doing the right thing will not expend too much political capital?

It appears that the GOP was so upset about the way the State Run Media killed them over the latest government shutdown that they don’t want to do anything to come close to shutting down the government in 2014 or being labeled as obstructionists.  This apparently now means the GOP will give the Left modest spending increases to avoid not having to be the lead story on the network news programs.

I would never be elected to any national office but even if I was, I couldn’t stand the political games that are played regarding important issues that have clearly defined problems and are in need of real world solutions.  If I were in office right now I would not care about the political fallout over shutting the government down indefinitely until we forced Obama, the Senate and the House to address the only real issue that will reduce our debt and that is unsustainable entitlement spending.  If we can’t come together and recognize that 2+2=4 then let’s shut the whole thing down and reduce spending that way.

But I guess that’s why I’m not in politics.  So once again this year I’ll support the GOP, place my hope that they know what they’re doing and hold my nose as I watch the GOP accept a little more spending in hopes that once the GOP controls the House and Senate we’ll get back on track.

But then again, I had hoped that selecting a moderate Republican Presidential candidate in 2012 would ensure Obama would be a one term POTUS.  I honestly thought Romney would be the guy to bring in the votes from the political Center but we all know that didn’t work out so well.

I fear the harsh reality is this – The strategy of simply moving to the Center to get more votes can’t work right now.  The power of the State Run Media to influence the Low Information Voters negates our viable candidates we elect in Republican primaries.  It is also my belief that the ‘Gimme Free Stuff’ voters outnumber the voters who understand math/economics and the GOP will never win these entitlement minded votes by telling them they need to take some personal responsibility.  I think the US is truly past the point of no return and we are now just managing the decline.

But I sincerely hope I’m wrong and the GOP leaders are right.  I do not think the current GOP strategy will work in November 2014 but if I’m wrong I will gladly admit it and post it here for all to see.  Until then, I’ll have hope for 1 more year but if we don’t make real gains in the midterm elections then the GOP will lose me.

Posted in politics | 6 Comments

MLB Attendance Drives Global Temperatures

I have shown before how the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) cult has a very inconvenient problem in that the atmospheric CO2 concentrations do not correlate well with global temperature anomalies (especially over the past 17 years).  To further drive that point home, allow me show you how, over a 52 year period, a seemingly insignificant statistic has a better correlation with global temperature anomalies than atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Believe it or not, the annual attendance totals for all Major League Baseball (MLB) parks has a very strong correlation with the global temperature anomalies as measured by the Climate Research Unit (CRU).

mlb attendance and global tempsmlb vs global tempsMLB park attendance has a coefficient of correlation (R2) with global temperature anomalies of 77.8%.  For those not statistically inclined, the closer R2 is to 100% means you have a higher degree of certainty making the claim that a proportional change in variable X will cause an equally proportional change in output Y.

As a comparison, here is a graph showing the correlation between atmospheric CO2 concentrations (obtained here) and global temperature anomalies.

co2 vs cru 1960 to 2011So the R2 of MLB park attendance vs. global temperature anomalies (77.8%) is stronger than the R2 of atmospheric CO2 concentrations vs. global temperature anomalies (70.1%)!

You’ll even notice that MLB park attendance ‘explains’ the last 17 years of flat global temperature anomalies which is something the AGW cult can’t do with atmospheric CO2 concentrations.  From 1960 to 1997 MLB attendance increased in proportion to global temperature anomalies but then they both leveled off during the past 17 years.

Global temperature anomalies have been flat for the past 17 years while atmospheric CO2 continues its steady increase and this is shown by the lack of correlation in the following graph.

cru 1997So if Al Gore and the rest of the AGW cult were really serious about slowing the warming of our planet then they’d be advocating we limit the number of people who attend Major League Baseball games.

On the other hand, if Major League Baseball refuses to reduce the amount of time it takes to play a 9 inning game and continues to ignore their substance abuse issues, then the AGW cult will have nothing to worry about because the Earth will enter a new ice age as MLB park attendance approaches zero.

Posted in Climate Change | 7 Comments

The Inequality That Obama Forgot To Mention

In an attempt to avert attention away from his Obamacare fiasco, The One gave a speech today where he trotted out the Left’s favorite meme du jour – Income Inequality.  We all know that this meme is really just a vehicle to buy votes via raising the minimum wage and I’ve collected some good links here that you can use to debunk this meme with your liberal friends but if the Obama’s and Elizabeth Warren’s of the world want to really have a conversation about ‘inequality’ then I have an inconvenient truth to bring to the table.

The real inequality in the US is the disproportionate amount of income taxes paid by the successful.

I used the IRS webpage here to obtain the adjusted gross income (AGI) share and income tax share paid by US citizens from 2001 to 2010.

If we had a ‘fair’ income tax system then a particular income demographic (say the top 10%) would earn X% of the total AGI and they’d pay that same X% of the total income taxes.  But that is not how it works.

The graph below shows the AGI % and income tax % for the top 10% (those making over $116,623 annually in current dollars) and you can see that while this group accounts for roughly 45% of the total AGI they paid roughly 70% of the taxes from 2001 to 2010!

agi vs taxThere is another way I like to put a finer point on this topic and I call it the 3-30-50 rule.

Using the latest tax return data available at the IRS (for tax year 2011), you come across this inconvenient truth about inequality – People making over $200,000 per year accounted for:

A)     3.2% of all income tax returns filed,

B)      29% of all AGI and

C)      50.7% of all income taxes collected

3-30-50: The greedy, fortunate, pampered 3% account for about 30% of the income earned but pay about 50% of all income tax revenue.

The Left has no problem pointing out that successful people earn more than less successful people (a fact that should not come as a shock to any thinking individual) but they forget to point out that these same successful people pay much more than their fair share in income taxes.

This is the true inequality that the Left will never speak of.

Posted in Income Inequality, politics | Leave a comment

A Bad Day For Unions

Liberal controlled Local and State governments are slowly waking up to the fact that sweetheart pension deals for their unions are bankrupting their cities and states.

First we saw a ruling from a federal judge that states the city of Detroit can file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy and in turn cut pensions for its retirees.

“The largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history took a major step forward Tuesday when a federal judge ruled that the city of Detroit is eligible for protection under Chapter 9 of the U.S. bankruptcy code.”

“The embattled city is trying to work its way out from under $18.5 billion in debt. In issuing his decision, Judge Steven Rhodes said “the court finds that Detroit was and is insolvent.” Rhodes also said the city can seek to cut pensions for its retirees as it works to reduce its debt. He also cautioned, though, that such cuts must be fair and equitable — a signal he won’t rubber-stamp the city’s decisions.”

The Unions are upset because there was no good faith negotiating effort made before filing for Chapter 9 but negotiating is impossible when half of the $18.5 billion debt is tied up in union pension benefits.  Detroit is out of money and there is no negotiating over a line item that accounts for a majority of the shortfall.  Even the judge made that statement:

“But Rhodes concluded it would have been “impracticable” for the city to negotiate in good faith. “In other words,” writes Detroit’s WXYZ-TV, the city’s financial situation was “so dire that negotiating in good faith would not have been realistic.”

Next we see that the state of Illinois recently passed legislation to overhaul its pension system because it, like Detroit, is out of money.

“Illinois lawmakers have approved a sweeping plan to close a $100 billion shortfall in the state’s pension system, which would cut retirees’ benefits.”

It’s worth noting that the mayors of Detroit and the State House and Senate of Illinois have been ruled by Democrats for decades.  Detroit’s city government decisions that caused its decline should be published and distributed to every Mayor, Governor and state House/ Senate as an example of what NOT to do when governing a city or state.  Driving out businesses, pandering to unions, raising taxes, expanding government and failing to recognize the decline of their number one industry all contributed to the situation they are in now.

It’s sad that Liberals only realize the errors of their ways when they are faced with bankruptcy.  Let’s hope the rest of the country heeds these “canary in the cave” examples and the rest of us take steps now to move toward Free Market, small government and pro business policies.

Posted in economics, politics | 4 Comments

Blame Obamanomics

Today there was more bad news for the long termed unemployed who are still suffering from this supposed Obamanomics recovery.

“More than 1 million people will see their extended unemployment benefits immediately cut off at the end of the month if Congress doesn’t act.”

“An emergency federal benefit program was put in place during the recession to help those who are unemployed longer than six months. That allowed them to get as much as a year and a half of help while they searched for work, even after state benefits ran out.”

“But without congressional action, the program will expire at the end of December, meaning the most anyone could get would be six months of unemployment benefits. In some states, it would be even less.”

Of course Democrats are pulling on our heart strings to continue this benefit but I think Tom Cole, R-Okla said it best (from the NPR article emphasis mine):

“there simply isn’t an appetite for renewing this program again, five years after it started as a temporary emergency measure at the height of the recession.”

This extended benefit was supposed to last only until the Obama promised ‘recovery’ kicked in but 5 years into Obama’s regime has yielded anemic growth and millions still left unemployed for years.

What was Obama’s promise?  Remember back in early 2009 Obama told us that we needed to pass a $787 billion stimulus package to keep the unemployment rate below 8%.  The report from Obama’s crack economic advisors showed us this infamous graph that showed how we needed the 2009 stimulus to keep the unemployment rate below 8%.

recovery plan graphI grabbed the monthly U-3 unemployment rate data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics website and superimposed those numbers on the Obama recovery graph and you can see how the $787 billion we spent on the 2009 Recovery Act was totally ineffective on the U-3 unemployment rate.

recovery plan graph vs actualThe actual unemployment rate was WORSE than the predicted unemployment rate if we had not spent the $787 billion on stimulus.  Let that sink in!  Based on the projections of the Team Obama economic whiz kids, we would have been better off to do nothing instead of spending $787 billion on the 2009 stimulus.

This graph tells us either Team Obama:  1) failed to understand the complexities of our economy (in the vein of measure once, cut twice) or 2) proposed solutions that were totally ineffective at recovering from the recession.  Either way this graph shows reveals the incompetence from Team Obama’s team of academic elites.

Five years should be enough for a recovery from a recession but under Obamanomics we see the malaise continues and the 4 million people who are considered long term unemployed have nobody to blame but Team Obama and those who voted for them again in 2012.

Elections have consequences.

 

h/t to Jim Pethokoukis from the American Enterprise Institute who started plotting actual U-3 unemployment verses the predictions of Team Obama

Posted in economics, politics | 7 Comments

A Peek Into Leftist Ideology

To those who are not blind to history, we know that fascism has its roots in the ideology of the Left (even though they try to deny it) so we must be on guard to see this behavior creep to the surface when the Left gets cocky or thinks we aren’t listening.

We saw an example of the Left’s true feelings bubbling to the surface this past weekend when Jezebel News Editor Erin Gloria Ryan (@morninggloria) sent out a tweet stating that she wished Scott Walker was dead instead of actor Paul Walker.

She eventually deleted this tweet and apologized but many, like me, didn’t let her off the hook.

That last tweet of mine prompted this exchange:

https://twitter.com/tleavesdogears/status/407212587487481856

https://twitter.com/tleavesdogears/status/407216992542654464

To be clear, I’ve often wished for the deaths of people who are evil and are a threat to Freedom and the Human race in general.  I was glad Bin Laden was killed and I wish that every terrorist who kills people will eventually have their life snuffed out quickly.  I have also routinely wished for the death of those who murder or abuse innocent children.  I will never apologize for my calls for the swift execution of those who have violated the inherent moral code all humans possess pose a threat to decent human society.

My point was that the vast majority of adults would never apologize for wishing for a person’s death who committed such a heinous crime that society would be better off with him dead.  Most sensible who value the democratic process would never wish death on those who share different political ideologies.  We would wish for a person to lose an election but we’d never advocate for their death!

There is an inconvenient truth that Ms. Ryan can’t deny – Her tweet wishing death on Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker was not due to some horrific crime he had perpetrated but solely on the fact that he has a different political ideology than hers.  Governor Walker has been an unabashed supporter of Free Market principles and limited government and that has obviously enraged Ms. Ryan to the point where she wishes he would die.  Make no mistake about it; advocating for the death of those who have different political views is exactly how fascists think.

In case you haven’t figured it out yet–> Leftists = Fascists.

Posted in politics | 3 Comments

Welcome To The Hotel Obamacare

You can enroll anytime you like but you can never leave!

Team Obama will not want many more Obamacare horror stories like this to appear on NPR.

It’s bad enough that one of Alaska’s residents had to go through hell to even get enrolled:

“Anchorage hair stylist Lara Imler is one of the few who got through, as we previously reported. But Imler discovered problems with her application, and now she wants to cancel her enrollment.”

“I don’t even know how to feel about the whole thing anymore because I can’t even get anyone who has an answer to help,” she says. “It’s just such a lost cause at this point.”

But even after finally enrolling you can read that her insurance company never got her application and then there was discrepancies with her subsidy amount. And when she tried to call for help:

“When she called the HealthCare.gov hotline, no one could help her figure out what went wrong.”

This is no comfort to Ms. ilmer but it turns out everyone who signed up for Obamacare in Alaska had this same problem. Further more:

“It took two weeks for the federal Health and Human Services Department to resolve the issue. Since then, Enroll Alaska has signed up about 80 people in the marketplace. Chief Operating Officer Tyann Boling says half the people her insurance agents sit down with have tried to navigate HealthCare.gov on their own and given up.”

“This is not an easy process. I think even if this website was functioning at 100 percent this would not be an easy process,” Boling says. “This is complicated. If you click on one wrong thing, there’s no back buttons, it can be a really, really nasty process to go through.”

So an Insurance industry COO is basically telling us this system will always be complicated and difficult even if a magic wand is found to fix the Obamacare website.

And now here is where it gets really bad. Ms. Ilmer got so frustrated that she wanted to terminate her application and insurance plan through Obamacare. But when she tries to do that, she finds out the system won’t let her.

“”So you hit the terminate button. It says you’ve chosen to end the following coverage… you then have to check ‘I have fully read and understand that I’m choosing to terminate coverage,'” she says. “Then you click terminate again, and we’ll see what happens.”

“What happens is nothing. The health plan Imler signed up for is still listed in her profile. She logs out and then back in, and it looks exactly the same. She checks her e-mail for a notice of coverage termination and finds nothing there either. Imler leans back on the couch and looks surprisingly calm about the whole thing.”

“I’m resigned to the fact that it doesn’t work. No matter what I do, it just doesn’t work. And this is the improved website.”

How convenient! I’m sure the fact that you can enroll but never leave is not a glitch in the Obamacare website but instead a feature. That’s the goal of socialized medicine, get as many into the system and keep them there by any means necessary.

Yes low info voters, Welcome to the hotel Obamacare. You can enroll anytime you like but you can never leave!

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

3 Reasons Why I Hate The Iran Nuclear Deal

I’ve had a day or so to digest the new Iran Nuclear Deal brokered by US Secretary of State John Kerry, representatives from the UN Security Council (and Germany) and the Iranian foreign minister Mohammad something or other and I think this was a very bad deal for the US.

This Deal Wasn’t Needed

It appears the sanctions were working:

“There’s widespread agreement that sanctions have worked, squeezing Iran financially and bringing its leaders to the negotiating table. Iran’s economy is, by any measure, in terrible shape.”

Although I would use the present tense of the verb ‘work’ instead of the past tense in the NPR article because I thought the purpose of the sanctions was to force Iran to STOP enrichment of Uranium past the point needed for medical and power generation.

Look what happens when the US and its allies get together and decide to not purchase oil from countries that want to destroy us:

“That really had a devastating effect,” says Danielle Pletka, who tracks the Middle East for the American Enterprise Institute. She says when it was just the U.S. refusing to buy, the Iranians could easily sell its oil elsewhere in the global market.”

“[But] when the Europeans came on board and decided not to buy, it had a huge impact and it cut by more than half Iran’s ability to sell,” she says.”

We were crippling their economy and you have to think that eventually the Iranian people and their leaders when faced with the choice of feeding their children or building nuclear weapons would choose food.   And it appears the Iranian citizens were going down that road with the last election:

“Hassan Rohani was elected with a mandate to improve the economy,” he says. “He has promised he will improve the economy and decrease Iran’s isolation, and to do so he must reach a negotiated settlement on the nuclear program so sanctions can be lifted.”

All the pressure was on Iran to reach a settlement in order to lift the sanctions.  Iran was on the ropes and had little negotiating power.  When you have an opponent on the ropes, you don’t back off and let him catch his breath.

I think Team Obama could’ve taken a lesson from Reagan and the way the US won the Cold War with the USSR.  In a sense we forced economic hardships on Russia by baiting them into a technological based arms race and the Soviet’s Socialism was no match for the US’s Capitalism.  Russia was forced to watch its economy tank while they tried to keep pace with our spending and eventually the Soviet system collapsed.

Reagan saw this happening but did he call a meeting with the USSR and volunteer to reduce our spending?  Heck no, he doubled down on the Strategic Defense Initiative and that was one of the final straws that broke Mother Russia’s back.

There was no need to broker a deal, the sanctions were working and they should’ve been given more time.

The Iranians Were Attempting To Enrich Uranium To Weapons Grade

Uranium only needs to be enriched to 3-5% to be used in reactors for energy production and most modern nuclear weapons have Uranium enriched over 80% but Uranium enriched to 20% can be what is called weapons-usable grade Uranium.  So if the Iranians are enriching Uranium to levels greater than 5% then that is proof they have nefarious intentions.

Well, it appears the Iranians were well on their way because one of the tenets of the deal included this:

“All of Iran’s stockpile of uranium that has been enriched to 20 percent, a short hop to weapons-grade fuel, would be diluted or converted into oxide so that it could not be readily used for military purposes.”

So we know they were enriching Uranium at levels that serve no other purpose than military and we decided to stop the sanctions.

Remind me never to take John Kerry with me to buy a car.

This May Be All About John Kerry’s Legacy

This NPR story’s headline scares me to death:

John Kerry: Risk Ready And Looking For A Legacy

“Secretary of State John Kerry has been diving into difficult issues ever since he took up the office at Foggy Bottom. He’s managed tough negotiations with Afghan President Hamid Karzai over a future, limited role for U.S. troops there. He’s re-launched Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, reached a deal with Russia to rid Syria of chemical weapons and is now making headway with Iran to roll back that country’s nuclear program. This is a man clearly looking for legacy.”

That last sentence is particularly troubling.  Team Obama, and specifically John Kerry, aren’t up for re-election and appear to be worried more about how History will treat them instead of doing what is in the best interest of the country and the world.

I don’t care how History speaks of John Kerry but if his motivation right now is to take risks and score quick wins so he looks good in the short term then that makes him a very dangerous man.  Those attributes might be suited for a CEO of a tech startup but they are NOT what we need in a Secretary of State.

John Kerry should study about Neville Chamberlain and how he brokered a deal that he probably hoped would leave a legacy.  Chamberlain thought that giving Hitler the Sudetenland and parts of Czechoslovakia would be enough to avert a war in Europe.  Appeasement.  Chamberlain got his wish, he left a lasting legacy but not in the way he had hoped.

It still boggles my mind why we even entered into negotiations with Iran and I hope I’m wrong but I fear that in 6 months Iran will be closer to developing a nuclear weapon and the only concerns their leaders will have is who will be the first target.

Posted in politics | 3 Comments

The AGW Cult’s Correlation Problem

The main tenant of the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) cult states there is a direct correlation between increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and increased global temperature anomalies.  I will show how this theory is very misguided when confronted with the inconvenient truth of the data.

But first let’s define correlation:

Correlation – The relationship between things that happen or change together.

When you are hypothesizing about a correlation between one input variable (X) and an output (Y) there is a statistical coefficient of determination that is used to measure the correlation and it is called R2.

The correlation coefficient gives the percent probability that can be attributed to the linear relationship between X and Y.  Put another way, an R2 of 1 indicates a 100% correlation between X and Y (a change in X corresponds to a proportional change in Y every time) and an R2 of 0 indicates absolutely no correlation between X and Y (variable X can do whatever it wants and it will not affect Y).

What does a strong correlation with an R2 of approximately 1 look like?  The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) provided data showing the relationship between years of education and median weekly earnings and you can see that this correlation is very strong.

education vs earningsThere is an R2 is 0.98 which means there is a 98% probability that years of education affects median weekly earnings (2% of the data represents outliers that have had their median income not dependent on their education level).  This is a very intuitive statement and we really don’t need to understand R2 or statistics but in this case the BLS data back it up.  From this data we can say with 98% certainty that a person’s weekly income is highly affected by his or her education level.

OK, now let’s use that R2 statistic to test the correlation between atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global temperature anomalies.

(Note – For those who wish to check my work, the atmospheric CO2 data can be obtained from the Mauna Loa observatory, global temperature anomalies can be obtained from the Climate Research Unit and the Remote Sensing System satellite (RSS) global temperature anomalies can be obtained here. )

From the time period of 1958 to 1997 you can claim there is a weak correlation between CO2 and global temperatures – Atmospheric CO2 concentrations had around a 42% probability of altering global temperatures.

cru 1958And note this is the BEST time period an AGW cult member will use to show that atmospheric CO2 concentrations directly affects global temperature anomalies because global temperatures were on a fairly steady increase during this period.  But at best, we’re talking about a 42% probability of atmospheric CO2 concentrations being the main driver of those global temperature increases.

Now look what has happened from 1997 to 2013.

cru 1997We see a mere 0.36% probability that atmospheric CO2 concentrations affected global temperatures over the past 17 years!  That is a very inconvenient truth for Mr. Gore and the AGW cult!

Is 17 years of temperature data enough to make judgments about the Earth’s climate?  The AGW cult and specifically the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had no problem drawing conclusions on 15 years of data so yes it is enough time.

“Back then (in 2007), it (the IPCC) said observed warming over the 15 years from 1990-2005 had taken place at a rate of 0.2C per decade, and it predicted this would continue for the following 20 years, on the basis of forecasts made by computer climate models.”

Let’s have some fun and look at the correlation between a variable that should have absolutely no relationship with global temperatures and compare that with the correlation of Atmospheric CO2 concentrations.  I obtained the average monthly price for corn in the US from 1979 to 2013 and plotted this against the global temperature anomalies for that same period.

cornThat’s right, during the last 17 years US corn prices have had about the same probability of affecting global temperatures (0.38%) as atmospheric CO2 concentrations (0.36%).

And it gets a lot worse for the AGW cult when you look at satellite temperature data.

rss 1979rss 1997

Even for the time period of 1979 to 1997 (when the AGW cult was going crazy because the Earth’s climate was actually warming), RSS data show there is only a 5.5% probability that atmospheric CO2 concentrations can be attributed to changes in global temperatures.  To make matters worse, there is only a 0.07% probability that atmospheric CO2 concentrations drove global temperatures during the 17 year period between 1997 and 2013.  For those mathematically challenged in the AGW cult, a 0.07% probability means that atmospheric CO2 concentrations have basically done NOTHING to affect global temperatures for the past 17 years.

My final thought – There is no doubt CO2 is a green house gas but CO2 is obviously a minor contributor to the Earth’s global temperature anomalies and any attempt to spin it otherwise is done in ignorance of the available data.  It’s time to end this fraud.

Posted in Climate Change | 6 Comments

Bob Schieffer Had A Sad

Apparently Bob is really upset that the State Run Media had to stop flogging Republicans over the Government Shutdown in order to cover this Obamacare failure.

 

Posted in healthcare, politics | 2 Comments

Team Obama Fakes Jobs Report

Remember when Jack Welch said this?

Well he took a lot of heat over this and even though I was suspicious of the sudden drop in the unemployment rate (right before the 2012 Presidential election), I didn’t think even Team Obama could sink to this level of moral ineptitude.  And there were plenty of articles stating that it was ‘impossible’ to fake the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs reports.  See here, here and here.

But now we have a new report from the NY Post claiming Mr. Welch was right.

In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington.

The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated.

And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.

Just two years before the presidential election, the Census Bureau had caught an employee fabricating data that went into the unemployment report, which is one of the most closely watched measures of the economy.

And a knowledgeable source says the deception went beyond that one employee — that it escalated at the time President Obama was seeking reelection in 2012 and continues today.

Now this is early and the details of this report have to be vetted but if, and it’s a big if, this is true then I will join the chorus of folks who have been calling for Obama’s impeachment.

This is wrong on so many levels.  Forget about the fact that this manipulation more than likely turned the 2012 Presidential election.   The monthly jobs data drives the Stock Market and now you’re messing with peoples’ 401k balances.  The FED bases their policy decisions, in large part, on the Unemployment data.  Companies make strategic decisions on the health of the economy and the BLS data is a big piece of this.

This alleged manipulation of one of the more sacred economic variables is very serious.

If this isn’t grounds for impeachment then the United States doesn’t deserve to survive.

Posted in economics, politics | 1 Comment

Bread Alternatives For Type 2 Diabetics

After being diagnosed with Type 2 Diabetes I had to make several, radical lifestyle changes to get my blood sugar measurements in the ‘normal’ range (70 – 100 mg/dL fasting and <130 mg/dL 2 hours after a meal).  I never really ate sweets so eliminating empty calories found in sweets was not a problem but giving up bread was a struggle.

I love bread.  Rolls, sub sandwiches, muffins, bagels….it didn’t matter.  I grew up having some sort of bread product with every meal and I’ve even walked out of a restaurant that didn’t serve baskets of bread with the meal.  But as a diabetic, I soon realized that bread products that were high in carbohydrates would cause my blood sugar to spike to dangerous levels and I therefore had to eliminate it.

Eliminating the dinner rolls, bagels and breakfast sandwiches were easier to give up and eventually I didn’t miss those but I really struggled with two types of meals that are almost deal breakers for me – sandwiches and tortillas.  I ate a sandwich at least once a day and my family loves Mexican food and we eat it at least twice a week.

Although I tried eating the contents of sandwiches without the bread or eating fajitas without the tortillas, I just really didn’t enjoy these favorite meals of mine without the taste and texture of the bread products.

Fortunately for me, there are two products that I found at my local supermarket that make excellent bread substitutes and won’t spike my blood sugar.

Sandwich Alternative

josephs' pita breadJoseph’s bakery has a low carb/high fiber pita made with flax, oat bran and whole wheat that provides the perfect canvas to hold my favorite sandwich ingredients.   Each pita contains 8g of Carbs but also has 4g of fiber so the net carbs of a whole pita is only 4g.

I cut the pita in half, stuff my favorite meat, cheese, fixings and dressings into the pocket and it makes for a fantastic sandwich.  Because I cut the pita in half, I only consume 2g net carbs with each sandwich and my blood sugar measurements 2 hours after the meal are negligibly different than if I at the sandwich without bread.

Tortilla Alternative

la tortilla factoryLa Tortilla Factory has a low carb/high fiber tortilla that has allowed me to enjoy Mexican night at the house with the rest of the family.  Each tortilla has 10g of carbs but with 7g of fiber, the net carbs consumed is only 3g.  The tortilla is big enough for a single meal for me but the company also has a larger variety that has only 6g net carbs (18g carbs/12g of fiber) and while I haven’t tried this larger size, 6g net carbs is not enough to spike your blood sugar after a meal.

I can’t bring these tortillas with me to Mexican restaurants but I’ve also found that if I order corn tortillas instead of flour tortillas, my blood sugar still stays within normal ranges 2 hours after I ate.

If you are a Type 2 diabetic and miss your sandwiches and tortillas then check your local supermarket aisles for these products and start enjoying them again.

Posted in Diabetes | 1 Comment

NASA Demonstrates Unequivocally That Global Warming Theory Has Failed

This is a graph that the AGW cult doesn’t want you to remember. In 1988 the “settled science” team produced 3 temperature scenarios – A, B and C. Scenario C was modeled assuming that there would be ZERO increase in atmospheric CO2 starting in 2000. Guess which scenario our actual temperatures have tracked?

Tony Heller's avatarReal Climate Science

In 1988, the world’s greatest climatologist published these three possible forecasts for future temperatures.

ScreenHunter_64 Nov. 16 05.22

Scenario A assumes continued exponential trace gas growth, scenario B assumes a reduced linear growth of trace gases, and scenario C assumes a rapid curtailment of trace gas emissions such that the net climate forcing ceases to increase after the year 2000.

www.klimaskeptiker.info/download/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf

The highest forecast, scenario A was Hansen’s expected “business as usual” forecast, as documented in this 1989 publication.

ScreenHunter_74 Nov. 06 22.19ScreenHunter_73 Nov. 06 22.18

Popular Science – Google Books

So how did Hansen’s forecasts fare? NASA five year mean temperatures are plotted in green on top of the 1988 graph below. They are tracking scenario C, which was based on zero emissions this century.

scenario C assumes a rapid curtailment of trace gas emissions such that the net climate forcing ceases to increase after the year 2000

In other words, the 10% increase in atmospheric CO2 since 2000…

View original post 259 more words

Posted in Climate Change, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

A Leftist Dream Shattered

To many of us who live in the real world and understand math this next statement shouldn’t come as a shock to you – Increasing Medicare and Medicaid spending does not reduce Nationwide health care costs.

But alas, there are still many Leftists who labor under the delusion that adding more people onto an already over burdened system such as Medicare/Medicaid would somehow reduce the amount of money we spend as a nation on health care.

It is now known that only about 100,000 people have signed up for insurance on the Federal and State exchanges since the Obamacare website became ‘live’ on 01-OCT-13.  This falls way short of the goal and any thinking adult would see this as a disaster but I saw this tweet tonight from @stevebenen (producer for Rachel Maddow show).

I questioned where this 500,000 number came from and he responded.

And I stated that this should not be cause for celebration but he thinks otherwise.

The Leftist theory that adding uninsured onto a government health care plan will cause them to seek preventative care vs. the higher cost emergency room care is great in theory, but that theory falls apart in the real world.

Adding around 400,000 (and a lot more in the future) people to Medicaid will NOT reduce the US health care costs and that is easily proven with historical data.

From the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services website, I can obtain the total US health care expenditures and spending for Medicare and Medicaid (both Federal and State) since 1960 and can graph them to see if increasing spending in Medicare/Medicaid drives down the overall health care spending in the US.

It does not!

medicare graph

Leftist continue to cling to the notions that people will act in the best financial interests when they are spending other peoples’ money.  Unfortunately, that is not the way we’re wired.

Posted in Entitlement Programs, healthcare, politics | 14 Comments